When the Phoenix Mercury entered the PHX Arena to play the Aces for Game 3 of the Finals, they had everything they needed for a win — an experienced roster, the best scoring bench, a Big Three, and an X-factor. Yet, the team ended up taking another fall, and now they’re just one loss away from elimination. But what went wrong? Well, an ESPN analyst has got an answer for you!

As ESPN analyst Chiney Ogwumike noticed the Mercury’s lifeless run through the first three quarters on Wednesday night, she couldn’t help but give them a reality check. “They’re gonna need all of their weapons and it seems like even though they made a late push, that was great. It’s harder and harder — the mountain’s getting taller to climb. But you have to take a lot of pride in how they fought to the end… They had an ability to try to fight back, but it was just too little, too late,” she said. And yes, spot on.

Just like the Aces, the Mercury also have a Big Three, and leading them is MVP candidate this season, Alyssa Thomas. For her to dominate all phases of the game is routine. Her 8.7 assists combined with 8.7 rebounds in the postseason run have been key to the Mercury’s success. But what makes her even more important is her unselfish play. She looks for her teammates, passes, and stays aggressive offensively.

Helping her are Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper. Both have played a vital role in filling out the rest of the Mercury’s Big Three. With Thomas in the post, Copper on the perimeter, and Sabally elevating the game to another level, the Big Three surprise opponents with their incredible play. So yes, as Chiney said, they need all their weapons — especially since the team’s down 0–3 and the opponent is Las Vegas, a ferocious one.

However, one piece in Satou Sabally is already out for Game 4 before the team has even entered the battleground, due to concussion protocol. She went down with 4:26 left in Game 3 after her head made contact with the leg of Kierstan Bell. She lay down for a while, visibly in pain, and headed to the locker room. Ever since, she’s been out. So yes, the Big Three won’t be complete, but the Mercury still has a chance — as they’ve proved it before.

After losing Sabally in the fourth quarter, the Mercury fired on all cylinders. They went on an 11–2 run, with Copper scoring all of Phoenix’s points. Honestly, it looked nothing like the team that played the first three quarters. And that’s because, despite being down 0–2 in the best-of-seven series and playing in front of their home crowd, the Mercury played an easy game, a lifeless one even.

So how could the Aces not capitalize on it? Both Jewell Loyd and Dana Evans were shooting threes in the first half like they were playing pop-a-shot. But finally, after giving up a 17-point lead heading into the fourth quarter, the Mercury clawed back. The team closed the gap to 84–83 with 3:06 left as Copper hit a three-pointer.

Then DeWanna Bonner stepped up to tie the game at 86 with a three-pointer at 1:33 left, followed by two free throws to tie again at 88. But then Wilson took an entry pass from Gray and made her turnaround jumper. The Mercury had one final try to get a bucket, but as Bonner missed a quick jumper, the team lost. Still, you simply can’t ignore Phoenix’s 13–0 run to tie the game.

But there’s a concern even here. While the Mercury did execute, it was too little, too late. Had they shown the same fight in the first three quarters, the story would have looked different. “It took us too long to wake up and play defense,” Alyssa Thomas said afterward. “Shame on us for not coming out the way we needed to come out.”

Bonner agreed, saying, “Our defensive effort in the first half was unacceptable. Jewell came in and got them going with what, four straight 3s? They got their hands on a lot of loose balls that led to a lot of 3s. Our defense was unacceptable in the first half. I don’t know why we came out like that, especially already down 0-2.”

It would be a new challenge for Mercury!

The Mercury are already down 0–3, and they need to win all four remaining games to become the 2025 WNBA champions. But it won’t be easy to stop the Aces, especially since they change strategies for each game. At first, Becky Hammon chose to switch from man defense to zone defense — not to defend, but to create an illusion and stop the opponent from scoring.

And guess what — it worked, as the Aces flipped a 71–67 fourth quarter into a three-point win. Though Game 2 saw nothing like that, it was much easier to win as the Aces leaned on their Big Three. It looked more like Jackie Young, A’ja Wilson, and Gray vs. Mercury, because the trio alone combined for 70 of the Aces’ 91 points.

For Game 3, the strategy changed once again. The team knew Phoenix wasn’t in its best form, so they started capitalizing. They used three-pointers to barrage Mercury’s defense — and yes, it worked too. They had a 17–0 run through the first quarter to stay strong with an early 21–8 lead. So yes, Game 4 could be unexpected too. You never know what strategy Hammon’s going to use — be it a repeat or a new approach to win.

But can Phoenix stop them? Yes, because they’ve got what it takes to win. Be it their Big Three or their best scoring bench. Now, all they need is timely execution. AT is banking on that fire. “Now we’re facing elimination. You’ve got to give everything you have or it’s over,” she said.

Let’s just hope it isn’t already over.