Be honest with me, here: does the “underdogs” label the Mercury carried all season really fit them? If you ask me, not so much. Sure, the Valley is past Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner era, but Phoenix built their new core around stars like Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas, and Satou Sabally – all battle-tested stars.

So while we have to acknowledge the Aces’ championship pedigree, the Mercury’s fight this postseason has been… well, a little disappointing. That said, can they still put up a fight?

Mercury’s fight isn’t over yet?

This Phoenix Mercury barely resembles the team that was swept by the Minnesota Lynx in the first round last season. With only two returners – Natasha Mack and Kahleah Copper – the Mercury started 7–4 without Copper, then went on a six-game winning streak once she returned.  

When the team finally got healthy after the All-Star break, they went 11–10, but the postseason was a different story. The big three didn’t always show up on the same night, but combined with contributions, it was enough to push them through the playoffs.

Well, until the Finals.

Game 1 brought an 89–86 loss, which some chalked up to good luck. After all, Phoenix had previously dropped a first game in earlier rounds and still won the series. But Game 2 was far more brutal: a 91–78 blowout. Returning to Phoenix for Game 3, fans expected a comeback thanks to their “X-factor,” but that didn’t happen. Another tight loss, 90–88, sunk them to 0-3.  

Now, unlike previous years, losing three straight games doesn’t automatically end the Mercury’s season. Due to the WNBA Finals being a best-of-seven series now, the hope is still alive in the Valley. 

But is history on their side?

See, the truth is no team has ever climbed out of this hole in WNBA or NBA Finals history. Looking back, every team that went up 2–0 in WNBA Finals history went on to win the series. In the NBA, 15 teams have gone up 3–0 in the Finals, and all of them went on to claim the title, with nine completing sweeps. Sweeps aren’t uncommon in the WNBA either. Since 2010, six Finals series ended in a sweep, most recently the Seattle Storm over the Las Vegas Aces in 2020, and the Washington Mystics over the Sparks in 2018.

But there are a few things we need to take into account here. 

History seems… a bit friendly, maybe?

First, it’s worth noting that, maybe not 2-0, but there have been seven instances of a team overcoming a 2–1 series deficit to win. Four of these happened in the WNBA Finals, and three in the semifinals:

• 2006 WNBA Finals: Shock over Monarchs
• 2007 WNBA Finals: Mercury over Shock
• 2009 WNBA Finals: Mercury over Fever
• 2017 WNBA Finals: Lynx over Sparks
• 2018 WNBA Semifinals: Mystics over Dream
• 2020 WNBA Semifinals: Aces over Sun
• 2022 WNBA Semifinals: Sun over Sky

Elaborating on that, with the franchise at the forefront itself, the 2007 and 2009 Phoenix Mercury provide compelling examples of how teams can shift momentum in the Finals.

– 2007 WNBA Finals: Phoenix Mercury vs. Detroit Shock
The Mercury fell behind 2–1 after losing Game 3 on the road. But in Game 4, they leaned into their fast-paced, run-and-gun style. In the decisive game, Phoenix maintained offensive rhythm, exploiting Detroit’s slower pace to secure a 108–92 victory, their first championship.

-2009 WNBA Finals: Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever
Down 2–1, the Fever’s defensive pressure had slowed Phoenix’s offense in Games 2 and 3. In Game 4, the Mercury adjusted by spreading the floor, regaining control, and swinging momentum back in their favor.

So, Game 4 has historically been a turning point for the Mercury. Maybe this time, the script could play out the same way.

Thanks, new format

We all know Becky Hammon’s group hates this seven-game series right now, but the Valley loves it. Because the new best-of-seven Finals format actually changes the dynamics. Previous WNBA Finals were a best-of-five format, which meant falling behind 2–0 was often a nearly insurmountable hole. One slow start or a bad matchup could effectively end a team’s title hopes before they even have a chance to find their rhythm.

Now, with the Finals expanded to a best-of-seven, the Mercury have extra breathing room. They can take a loss, analyze what went wrong, and make tactical adjustments without the clock running out. They can rebuild momentum, rotate players to manage fatigue, and rely on the depth of their roster to keep energy high.

Let’s break down Phoenix’s main problems:

• Defense
• Depth
• Three-point shooting and
• Consistency

This was the first time this postseason that the Mercury lost back-to-back games and really had to sit with copious amounts of film to figure out what went wrong. “The main takeaway for us when you watch the film is… we haven’t played to the level that we played in the other series defensively. We haven’t had the same connectedness,” Sami Whitcomb said. Copper agreed, adding, “We got to get back to us, be more connected defensively and then trust that the next person has your back.”

That said, if you remember, the Mercury entered the 2025 WNBA Finals with the highest defensive rating in the postseason, holding opponents to the fewest points per game (75.9) and points in the paint (32). Yet Las Vegas scored 86 points in Game 1, 91 in Game 2, and 90 in Game 3. From Phoenix’s perspective, Game 3 was a tale of two halves. The first three quarters exposed their early kryptonite: too many wide-open three-pointers for Las Vegas, combined with an offense forcing shots into the paint.

The final quarter showed glimpses of what they can do. Their defense has allowed 90 points per game through three games, a known issue, but one they can solve. Depth is another double-edged sword. Phoenix’s bench has been a scoring powerhouse all season (sitting at the top of the league), but much of that production comes from three stars. So while they have firepower, consistency is tricky.

All in all, the Mercury has the pieces. What they need now is execution. And this extended seven-game series finally gives them the chance to make it happen.

Comeback queens

Not to be overlooked, “being able to fight back” has been part of the Mercury’s “identity” all postseason.

They did claw their way back into the game 3 as well, only to have Wilson hit the game-winner. If Phoenix hadn’t played defense like statues in the first half, this story might have ended differently. And sure, their comeback fell short this time, but that’s their specialty, as we said. The Mercury erased a 20-point deficit in Game 2, and after a controversial finish in Game 3, their Game 4 effort made them the first team to overcome multiple 13-point deficits in a single playoff series.

Sure, it hasn’t happened in the NBA, but we can’t really compare the W to the men’s game. Like, even though more common, the 2–1 comebacks are rare in the NBA, while in the WNBA, they happen a bit more often. Smaller rotations, fewer teams, and players knowing each other inside out make momentum swings way more impactful.

The WNBA’s parity means even the top squads are vulnerable, so a trailing team can flip a series with one strong performance. The new format just gives them more chances to exploit opponents’ mistakes as they get another shot, fueled by desperation and home turf energy.

And speaking of stars, one difference that can actually fire back is injuries. In the NBA, depth often softens the blow, but in the WNBA, limited rotations mean that foul trouble or an injury to a single key player can be huge. That’s the reality the Mercury have to navigate due to the unavailability of Satou Sabally.

Phoenix Mercury’s hopes take a hit

The basketball gods can be cruel. It was a brutal blow on Thursday when the team announced Sabally would miss Game 4 of the WNBA Finals due to a concussion suffered in Wednesday night’s heartbreaking 90–88 loss to Las Vegas.

The timing couldn’t be worse. With their backs against the wall, the 27-year-old forward had been playing with Finals-level fire. Despite an ankle injury in Game 2, she dropped 24 points in Game 3 before a fall in the fourth quarter – hitting her head on Kierstan Bell’s knee – ended her night.  From the moment it happened, it was clear the Mercury would be without their linchpin for the next crucial game.

Phoenix’s lifeline has been leading the team with 19 points per game in the postseason. And more than anything, Becky Hammon and the Aces are well-prepared and fully aware of Alyssa Thomas’ playmaking & physicality brilliance.  But Sabally’s ability to play multiple positions was probably the only true wildcard Nate Tibbetts had.

All in all, beyond the history and records, this moment might define how Phoenix’s Finals run plays out. Role players will need to step up, and the Mercury will have to bring defense, grit, and consistent three-point shooting.

ES’ Opinion: Avoiding a sweep might still be possible, but a full turnaround looks unlikely.