Nobody saw the Phoenix Mercury making the Finals, and now that they’re here, their performance has been… let’s just say, underwhelming. Down 0-2 to the Aces after taking down the defending champs and the team with the best regular-season record? Not exactly the heroics fans were hoping for from Alyssa Thomas and crew. Coach Tibbetts’s game plan hasn’t clicked yet, and several journalists have weighed in on what needs to change for the Mercury to mount a comeback.

Sabreena Merchant of The Athletic pointed to the blueprint set by the Fever on No Offseason: The Athletic Women’s Basketball Show, suggesting the Mercury could take notes if they want to win. “Well, I think your hope comes from the fact that we just saw a series where the Aces were really struggling against the Indiana Fever, right? Like there was a level of physicality that Indiana was able to reach that was giving Las Vegas difficulty,” she said.

We saw in that series just how intense things got when Kelsey Mitchell and her teammates went head-to-head with the Aces. It took Las Vegas all five games to get past a shorthanded Fever squad missing Caitlin Clark, Sophie Cunningham, Aari McDonald, Sydney Colson, and Chloe Bibby. The Fever went toe-to-toe with the Aces, stealing Game 1 and forcing a winner-takes-all Game 5 back at Michelob ULTRA Arena. Game 4 alone saw a staggering 41 fouls between the two teams.

The Fever did find some success in slowing down A’ja Wilson as well, thanks largely to Aliyah Boston. In Game 1, Wilson missed 14 shots near the basket, including four from inside the restricted area. Sure, not all of those attempts were easy, but Boston’s effort was relentless, guarding Wilson for 35 possessions and limiting her to a mere 16.7% effective field goal percentage, according to Swish Appeal’s Josh Felton. The Phoenix Mercury could take a page out of this playbook if they hope to challenge the Aces, who are currently steamrolling toward the Finals.

But Marcus Thompson II pointed out another crucial factor on the podcast: “They also have to make shots. I mean, that’s a big, big deal. And their defense is impacted by their inability to make shots.” Wilson is anchoring a defense that is aggressively keying on Mercury’s conductor, Alyssa Thomas.

Las Vegas switched things up with a zone defense, making sure Thomas couldn’t easily shake Wilson on screens. And when Thomas does drive to the paint, the Aces’ guards are quick to help, reaching and swiping to disrupt her game. So far, Thomas has eight turnovers in two games, and the pressure has clearly affected the Mercury’s offense–they’re shooting just 43.2% from the field and 28.4% from beyond the arc.

Coach Nate Tibbetts didn’t hold back his praise for the Aces’ defensive effort, acknowledging how effectively they’ve disrupted the Mercury’s rhythm and limited their scoring opportunities.

Phoenix Mercury coach praises Aces’ defense

Game 1 was a tough blow for the Mercury. They had controlled much of the game, but everything changed in the second half. In the fourth quarter, Las Vegas’ playoff experience took over, holding Phoenix to just 15 points on 33.3 percent shooting and sealing the win. Their zone defense kept Alyssa Thomas in check, which disrupted the flow for the entire team.

Coach Tibbetts admitted his team couldn’t find a way out against the zone defense, saying, “They went zone. We got up by nine, and they went zone. Kind of made us stand a little bit. I thought we had some good looks. Give them credit for mixing up their defense. I thought it was a good adjustment. We didn’t handle it well, and that was part of the reason she didn’t get as many shots in the second half as them going to that zone.”

Game 2 followed a similar script. The Mercury started strong, but the Aces’ defense soon swallowed them up. The triple-double queen had her quietest outing of this remarkable playoff run, finishing with just 10 points, six rebounds, and five assists.

Can the Phoenix Mercury bounce back by following the Indiana Fever template? That remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: they need to get Alyssa Thomas going. Without her firing on all cylinders, even their next two games at home could end in disappointment.