This isn’t the script anyone thought would play out in the Finals. With the first 2 games at Michelob ULTRA Arena, the Aces made sure home court worked in their favor. If fatigue crept in for stars like A’ja Wilson and Jackie Young during Game 1, there was none of it in tonight’s clash. They looked sharp, fresh, and in control. Yet, one WNBA analyst can’t help but wonder–what would the Aces’ fate have been if they hadn’t survived that Game 5 overtime battle against the Indiana Fever?

Las Vegas’ Game 1 win came on the backs of its bench, with Jewell Loyd and Dana Evans erupting for 39 points. But in Game 2, it was the stars who carried the load. Jackie Young dropped 32 points with 8 rebounds, including a record-breaking 21 in the third quarter–the most ever in a Finals quarter. A’ja Wilson backed her up with a dominant 28-point, 14-rebound double-double.

These two are the very reason the Aces are in the Finals. And it sparked a thought from Rachel DeMita, who couldn’t help but wonder what the Finals might’ve looked like if the injury-riddled Indiana Fever had made it instead. “If the hospital & hardship Fever end up winning more playoff games against the Aces than the Mercury do 😅,” she tweeted.

It took the Aces all five games to get past a Fever team missing Caitlin Clark, Sophie Cunningham, Aari McDonald, Sydney Colson, and Chloe Bibby. Even shorthanded, the Fever went toe-to-toe with Las Vegas, stealing Game 1 and then forcing a decisive Game 5 back at Michelob ULTRA Arena. That night, Jackie Young and A’ja Wilson made history as the first duo in WNBA playoff history to each score 30+ points in the same game. Yet even with that, it still took Chelsea Gray’s overtime heroics to push the Aces through. Without it, we might have been talking about the Fever — not the Aces — taking on the Mercury in the Finals.

While it was clearly a dig at the Mercury for underperforming, the reality is you can’t just point fingers at them. The Aces have simply outfoxed them. In both games, Phoenix came out looking like the stronger side, only for Becky Hammon to flip the script with her mid-game adjustments. In Game 1, it was her switch to a zone defense that turned the tide.

The Aces gave up five offensive boards as Phoenix came out hot in Game 2, shooting 45.5% and dropping 27 points in the first quarter. But that’s when Becky Hammon stepped in. Toward the end of the frame, and again between quarters, she pushed her team to tighten up. “At some point you have to do it,” Hammon told them. “Let’s fix it now. Not wait till after the game or halftime.” And that’s exactly what they did. Mercury scored just 4 points in the first quarter after the 6:52 mark, and the Aces never looked back, winning every quarter since then.

DeMita’s comparison raises a big question: Will Alyssa Thomas and co actually end up winning fewer games than an injury-plagued Fever did against the Aces, in the WNBA’s first-ever best-of-seven Finals series?

How the Mercury Can Avoid the Fate of the Indiana Fever

It goes without saying that Nate Tibbetts’ side have to come up with solutions quickly if they want to turn this series around. Luckily for them, they will now be headed to the Phoenix Arena. “We’re excited to get back home,” Kahleah Copper said, and that will definitely be a boost for the disheartened Phoenix fans out there.

Of course, there’s a matchup problem baked in that DeMita failed to factor in. Unlike the Indiana Fever, who had a winning regular-season record against the Aces, the Mercury struggled, going 1-3 during the regular season. On top of that, they lost three games (including postseason) against them by a margin of just 3 points, highlighting just how deadly the Aces are at closing out tight games against Phoenix.

Alyssa Thomas, the engine of the Mercury, had her quietest playoff outing of this remarkable run, finishing with just 10 points, six rebounds, and five assists. Satou Sabally struggled from deep, hitting only two of nine three-point attempts, and exited with 3:53 left after seemingly rolling her ankle. Kahleah Copper led the team with 23 points but posted a -21 in 31 minutes, admitting afterward that the Mercury simply lost their fight.

The Mercury have a mountain to climb if they want to avoid the same fate as the Fever, but history gives their fans reason to hope. Every time this team has found themselves backed into a corner, they’ve managed to fight back. In their last two playoff series, they staged remarkable comebacks. To give Mercury fans a glimmer of hope, in the Aces’ last two Finals appearances, they lost Game 3 each time.

But of course, the Aces went on to win both series. No team in WNBA history has ever come back from being down 2-0 in a best-of-five series—but with this new best-of-seven format, anything can happen. Nate Tibbetts and his side still have two chances to mount a comeback. What do you think? Can the Mercury pull off the unthinkable? Let us know in the comments below