How can a golfer with 68 more ranking points sit below someone with fewer points? That’s the paradox currently playing out at the top of the Official World Golf Ranking.

Tommy Fleetwood holds 308.96 points but ranks No. 4. Meanwhile, Xander Schauffele sits at No. 3 with just 240.35 points. Now, a bold projection from X account Nosferatu circulating on social media claims Fleetwood will officially become World No. 3 on December 1, 2025. There’s just one significant problem with this prediction, though.

Fleetwood isn’t playing any tournaments between now and then. Now, you might think, how will the change in positions happen? The explanation lies in how OWGR actually works. Rankings aren’t based on total points. They’re calculated using average points per tournament, which we have done for you ahead.

Schauffele has played 38 events with a divisor of 40, giving him an average of 6.0088. Fleetwood has competed in 52 events with a divisor of 52, resulting in an average of 5.9415. That tiny 0.0673-point difference keeps Schauffele ahead. The OWGR operates on a rolling two-year period. Points maintain full value for 13 weeks from the date they’re awarded. After that, they decay gradually over the remaining 91 weeks. This system prioritizes recent performances over older results.

Fleetwood’s recent wins give him an advantage in the decay battle. He captured the FedEx Cup in August 2025 and won the DP World India Championship in October. Both victories fall within the 13-week full-value window. His points remain fresh while older tournament results continue to lose value.

Fleetwood’s 2025 season concluded with the DP World Tour Championship, Dubai, played at Jumeirah Golf Estates from November 13-16. He is not playing the RSM Classic, which runs from November 20-23. His next scheduled tournament is the 2026 Dubai Invitational. Without earning new points, can a decay alone shift the rankings? Previously, speculation suggested Fleetwood could reach No. 3 with strong finishes at specific tournaments. That window has closed.

Both players will experience point decay during this period. Schauffele won’t gain new points either. The decay affects both golfers proportionally. For Fleetwood to overtake Schauffele by December 1, Schauffele’s average would need to drop below 5.9415 points per event. That would require his total points to fall from 240.35 to below 237.66. Such a dramatic loss in just two weeks seems unlikely given the gradual nature of the decay system.

The ranking battle reveals two fundamentally different approaches to professional golf.

Xander Schauffele’s selective strategy vs. Tommy Fleetwood’s volume game

Schauffele has played strategically, competing in 38 events over the 104 weeks. He benefits from the minimum divisor rule. His points are divided by 40 instead of 38, giving him a higher average. Fleetwood has taken the opposite approach. He’s played 52 events, hitting the maximum number of events. Despite accumulating more total points through consistent participation, his average suffers from the larger divisor.

The major championship factor weighs heavily here. Schauffele captured two majors in 2024: the PGA Championship and The Open Championship. Each major victory earned 100 OWGR points. His concentrated excellence in high-value events drives his superior average.

Fleetwood remains without a major championship victory despite consistent performances. He’s recorded multiple runner-up finishes in majors but hasn’t broken through. The OWGR system rewards quality over quantity. Schauffele’s strategic tournament selection and major championship success demonstrate this principle perfectly.

“I just felt comfortable with every aspect of my game today.”

Whether the December 1 projection materializes remains uncertain. The battle between Schauffele and Fleetwood reveals competing philosophies about modern professional golf. One emphasizes strategic selectivity and peaking for majors. The other showcases relentless consistency and year-round competition. As the OWGR rankings update on December 1, golf fans will discover whether point decay alone can rewrite the rankings or whether Schauffele’s quality-over-quantity approach maintains its mathematical edge.