Frances Tiafoe is on the verge of making it to his third straight final in Houston this weekend. The World No.17 has already won the US Men’s Clay Court Championships two years ago. Last season, he couldn’t repeat the milestone. But now is his chance to win this event for a second time. But before turning his dream into a reality, Tiafoe will have to face compatriot Brandon Nakashima in the semifinal on Sunday. Both ATP pros are coming off their respective victories in an all-American quarterfinal battle, replicating the moment from 1991 in Orlando. But who will emerge as the champion in an all-American SF face-off?

Frances Tiafoe v Brandon Nakashima: Preview

Frances Tiafoe hasn’t had a great season so far in 2025. At the beginning of the year, he failed to impress in Brisbane, crashing out of R16 against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. Down under, too, he was ousted early, in the second round. His poor form continued in subsequent events as well. In Dallas, Acapulco, Indian Wells, and Miami, he was eliminated early.

Coming to Houston, however, Tiafoe has showed great signs. He began his campaign with a straight-set win over Aussie Adam Walton with a score line of 7-5, 6-3. He then beat compatriot Alex Michelsen in the R8 with a score line of 7-5, 6-1 to secure a spot in his third straight Houston SF.

Speaking of his opponent, Brandon Nakashima’s season has been slightly steady. Back in January, he failed to do much in the first event in Adelaide, exiting in R16 against Rinky Hijikata. Then at the Australian Open, another compatriot Ben Shelton ousted him in the first round itself. The poor form continued in Dallas, too, where he was eliminated in R32. But then he bounced back in the next ATP challenge at the Delray Beach Open. Nakashima succeeded in reaching the QF before losing out to Matteo Arnaldi.

Extending his consistency in form, he then made it to the semifinal of the Mexican Open. Unfortunately, he couldn’t enter the title clash after a defeat against Czechia’s Tomas Machac. In next two tournaments, however, he failed to go past back-to-back R16 stages in Indian Wells and then Miami.

In Houston, he seems to have found his rhythm. In the first match, he ousted compatriot Mackenzie McDonald with a score line of 6-1, 7-5 before taking down another countryman Chris Eubanks in the QF.

Tiafoe vs Nakashima: Head-to-Head

Both players have met five times in professional ATP matches. Frances Tiafoe is currently leading the h2h tally 4-1.

• 2024 Japan Open R32: Nakashima 7-5, 6-3
• 2022 Atlanta Open QF: Tiafoe 6-4, 6-2
• 2022 Miami Open R64: Tiafoe 3-6, 7-6(5), 6-4
• 2022 Indian Wells R64: Tiafoe 6-4, 6-4
• 2021 Mexican Open R32: Tiafoe 6-4, 6-7(5), 7-6(5)

Prediction: Brandon Nakashima to win in three sets

Frances Tiafoe is not having a good singles record this season, at 6-7. On the other hand, Nakashima’s stats indicate a slightly better picture (12-8), suggesting he’s got an edge over his compatriot. Now speaking of their event history, Tiafoe needs no introduction when it comes to his recent campaigns in Houston. In last three appearances, in 2022, 2023, and 2024, he made it to the QF, won the trophy, and ended as the runner-up, respectively.

On the other hand, Nakashima hasn’t played the event much lately. In last season’s edition, he did manage to reach the quarterfinal before losing to Ben Shelton. The current season has marked his best run in Houston with a semifinal appearance. But what about their playing styles?

Well, Frances Tiafoe is known for his solid baseline game. Combine that up with his unorthodox forehand and stylish on-court demeanor. He mostly prefers to play straightforward offensive game without approaching the net frequently. He can also hit some speedy serves to stun his opponents.

When it comes to Nakashima, he relies on his strong serve and return. Similar to Tiafoe, he also likes to play mostly from the baseline using flat strokes. He can also cover the court smoothly and dominate his rivals with a lethal two-handed backhand.

While the event history and h2h tally is in favor of Tiafoe, it appears Brandon Nakashima may emerge as the winner going by his overall consistency in 2025. Yes, he will face a tough challenge, but he’s expected to seal a spot in the Houston final in three sets.