The Barcelona Open is here to continue the action of the clay swing. Andrey Rublev is set to play against Brandon Nakashima as both players aim to gain better momentum on clay before the arrival of the Roland Garros. Rublev and Nakashima are on a completely different level at the moment, which is not good news for the American player.

Rublev has run deep in many tournaments, especially the Hong Kong Open, the Australian Open, and the ATP Rotterdam. Nakashima, on the other hand, is struggling to achieve victories on the main draw.

Brandon Nakashima vs Andrey Rublev: Preview

Despite his dominance at the start of the year, Rublev has stumbled in his recent appearances. After a third-round exit in the Indian Wells Masters, he exited the Miami Open and the Monte-Carlo Masters in the first round. Rublev put 5 aces past Alexei Popyrin and only managed a 64% win on his first serve. He only managed to close 1 break point out of the 6 that came his way and gave away 3 breakpoints.

Nakashima is on a desperate run to improve his 2024. The American player has performed well in Challengers but found it difficult to make an impact on the main draw. He finally managed to gain wins in the ATP Houston before losing to Ben Shelton. In Barcelona, Nakashima eliminated Daniel Evans in the first round 7-6, 6-2. His service was not up to par as he only landed 49% of first serves and won 64% of points on first serves. He took 4 out of 12 break points while giving away only 2 out of 4 and managing 5 games in a row. 

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Nakashima vs Rublev: Head-to-Head

Nakashima and Rublev have played against each other once in the 2021 San Diego Open round of 16. Rublev was the victor by a large margin of 6-2, 6-1. The Russian was just as good of a player back then as he is now. Despite his early loss in the Monte Carlo Masters, Rublev has shown some of his best performances on clay, which puts Nakashima in a tough spot.  

Prediction: Rublev to find his first win on clay in 2024

On paper, Rublev is the better player. However, his recent performances have shown that he is frazzled on the court. He has experienced a decline since he was defaulted for shouting at a linesman during his match against Alexander Bublik in Dubai. Rublev faced 25 winners from Popyrin as he was unable to produce a significant challenge for him, and his dream run of defending his Monte Carlo title ended in the first round.

Although Nakashima hasn’t impressed fans so far, his performance on clay does show some promise. He beat Daniel Evans after a close encounter with Ben Shelton, which sets him up for a good show against Rublev as well. While Nakashima has a better momentum, he has also shown weaknesses that Rublev can exploit. His service game is weak, which will not bode well against Rublev, who has good returns. 

Nakashima’s backhand and consistency are also areas that can be exploited by the Russian star, who simply has a much better grip on clay. The scales tip towards Rublev, but his current performance does not give him a major edge. The match is likely to be a close encounter.