We’re now less than three weeks away from the ATP Finals in Turin, marking the tournament’s fifth consecutive year in the Italian city, and the race is reaching its boiling point. With only a handful of points left up for grabs, this week’s two ATP 500 events and next week’s ATP Masters 1000 will determine who snags the final spots in the season-ending showdown. Alcaraz, Sinner, and Djokovic have already booked their tickets, while Alexander Zverev is all but assured a place. As for the remaining four slots? The battle’s been fierce, but it looks like we finally have an update.

Just hours ago, veteran tennis journalist José Morgado posted the latest ATP Race update on X, listing: “6. Shelton, 3,770 (Basel R2); 7. De Minaur, 3,585 (Vienna R2); 8. Musetti, 3,525 (Vienna R2) — 9. Auger-Aliassime, 3,145 (Basel R1); 10. Ruud, 2,775 (Basel R2); 11. Medvedev, 2,560 (Vienna R1); 12. Bublik, 2,430 (Vienna R2) Draper and Rune are OUT.”

Ben Shelton surged into sixth place after a strong run in Basel, where he reached the second round following a semifinal finish in Tokyo. Alex de Minaur, meanwhile, climbed to seventh thanks to his consistent deep runs across Asia, including a semifinal in Beijing. Lorenzo Musetti completes the top eight, rewarded for his Vienna campaign and steady post-US Open form.

As for Holger Rune and Jack Draper, both are officially out of contention due to injury. Ultimately, their exits open the door for Casper Ruud and Felix Auger-Aliassime, who now stand ninth and tenth, respectively. In fact, if Ruud wins his next Basel match against Stan Wawrinka, he could leapfrog Auger-Aliassime to move even closer to the top-eight cutoff.

So talking about Jack Draper, before his latest setback at the US Open, Draper had already withdrawn from two events after sustaining an injury at Wimbledon. He’s been open about his need to build strength and endurance, acknowledging that his body is still adapting to the demands of life on tour. After all, Draper knows what it takes, as last year he reached the semifinals at the US Open, where his potential was on full display even as he battled illness on court. That match, against Jannik Sinner, underscored just how much fitness separates the good from the great in today’s game.

As for Holger Rune, his absence from the ATP Finals race also makes sense, as the 22-year-old Dane, ranked World No. 11, suffered a devastating injury at the Nordic Open, effectively ending his season.

Watching the moment unfold, even Ben Shelton shared his concern on Instagram, writing, “Hate to see this 😞 Praying for a speedy recovery @holgerrune 🙏.” It appears the recovery will take some time, as Rune shared an emotional message on Instagram a few days ago, writing, “It’s gonna be a while before I can step on court again. It’s tough.” He later confirmed that his Achilles tendon was completely ruptured near the top, an injury that will require surgery next week.

Right now, Alexander Zverev, with 5,930 points, the German is at the 3rd spot after Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. His season hasn’t been spectacular, but it’s been solid enough to put him back in the year-end top eight. Still, to be safe, he’s entered both the ATP 500 in Vienna and the Masters 1000 in Paris.

The ATP race to Turin enters its final stretch

Right behind Alexander Zverev sits his familiar rival, the man who’s beaten him seven straight times, Taylor Fritz. With 4,645 points, the Californian is now breathing down Zverev’s neck and sitting alongside fellow American Ben Shelton, who holds 4,100 points in sixth. Both players are competing in Basel this week, and each has a golden chance to lock in their ATP Finals qualification before heading to Paris.

For now, the focus is on the two key ATP 500 events in Basel and Vienna, which could reshape the race as players look to build momentum heading into the final stretch. After that comes the Masters 1000 in Paris, held this year at a new venue that promises a change of scenery for a field that’s been grinding non-stop all season. And if things remain tight, a few might even look to squeeze in one last push at the ATP 250s in Athens or Metz.

Who might need to extend their calendar to reach Turin? That’s the big question. Some players sitting outside the top positions could still make a late run, with 1,500 points still up for grabs, it’s far from over. And you cannot fully count out Andrey Rublev, Alexander Bublik, Jiří Lehečka, Karen Khachanov, and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, all dark horses who could turn the season’s final act into something truly dramatic, if the circumstances unexpectedly turn in their favor.

That said, can Ben Shelton hold his nerve and seal his ATP Finals debut, or will the chasing pack spoil his momentum? What do you think?