The US Open final last month marked the end of Jannik Sinner‘s reign as World No.1 after arch rival Carlos Alcaraz dethroned him. “Doing it on the same day as getting another Grand Slam feels even better. It’s everything I’m working for, and I’m really happy to be able to live these experiences,” said Alcaraz after winning his second title in New York. Now, as the race toward the year-end No.1 crown starts hotting up, tennis experts have offered a huge verdict on the battle among the Spaniard and the Italian.

Tennis Channel’s panel involving Steve Weissman, Prakash Amritraj, and ex-ATP pro Sam Querrey was doing an analysis between Alcaraz and Sinner’s chances of claiming the Year-End No.1 title. It seems like all three of them have sided with the six-time slam champion to maintain his domination. Weissman said that “Sinner would need to win basically everything and hope Carlos Alcaraz has some early exits to end as the Year No.1.” The Italian is set to compete in Vienna, the Paris Masters, and the ATP Finals in Turin.

The ball isn’t in his court; his own form isn’t enough and he’d need to rely on stumbles from the Spaniard to even sniff the chance of reclaiming the top spot this season. Similarly, Amritraj then commented, “I could easily see Jannik Sinner sweeping through events” but even he believes that “to have Carlos finish poorly, I don’t think that’s going to happen.”

And that is one clear advantage Alcaraz has got with two upcoming events in Paris and ATP Finals. So far, he has been consistent in terms of form. After the US Open, he won the Japan Open as well, even with an ankle niggle. Barring any major hiccups, it seems unlikely for Alcaraz to lose his form in his next two campaigns. If he wins the title in Paris and Turin, he will obtain 2,500 ranking points. That way, he will continue to stay No.1 going into 2026.

Lastly, Querrey also chimed in while favoring Alcaraz.“I think Carlos is going to win some matches and maybe some tournaments,” he said. Though the former pro did remind his colleagues that last season Sinner won back-to-back titles at the end of 2024; he emerged victorious in Shanghai and then Turin.

“He (Sinner) could roll off three-in-a-row,”  he said, before adding, “the lead from Carlos is just too much.” On top of the pressure of being consistent in his last three tournaments for 2025, Sinner is facing another obstacle. And that might damage his aspirations of reclaiming the pole position.

Jannik Sinner’s chase for the No.1 crown may get hampered

For the uninitiated, Jannik Sinner met an unfortunate fate last week at the Shanghai Masters. Being a defending champion, he was expected to dominate the ATP 1000 event yet again. However, the World No.2 was forced to cut short his campaign. During his Round of 32 match against Tallon Griekspoor, the Italian was seen cramping after stretching too much to hit a shot.

The pain was too much to handle for Sinner. He was even spotted taking the help of his racket as a makeshift stick. Also, his trainer had to step in to help him walk off the court eventually.

Now coming back to his chances of reclaiming No.1 spot, his plans might have hit a roadblock. He needs favorable results from Alcaraz and perfection from himself at Vienna, Paris, and Turin. However, a recent rumor suggests that Sinner may back out of Paris, in an update from Europsport Itay’s Simone Eterno. In case that happens, he won’t be able to reclaim the top spot even if he wins in Vienna and Turin.

Speaking of Sinner’s next appearance, he will be seen in an exhibition tournament this week. At the Netflix’s Six Kings Slam, he will try to defend his title. Last season, he beat Carlos Alcaraz in a deciding battle. In case he succeeds once again, the Italian will have a lucrative chance of earning $6 million in prize money.