Rafael Nadal may play his last match in the Spanish capital. This is per the legend’s own admission after he beat Darwin Blanch on Thursday. The Spaniard said, “I would be completely surprised if I beat Alex de Minaur on Saturday. I hope I can do my best and be competitive against De Minaur.” The comment showcases the 22-time Grand Slam Champion’s never-give-up mindset and his understanding of a man who ended his run in Barcelona. Can one of the sport’s greatest fighters turn it around, or will Alex de Minaur secure his third consecutive win over ‘The King of Clay’? 

The 22-time Grand Slam champion is the most successful player in Madrid and on this surface, but past glory is not an indicator of present success. Why? Because Alex de Minaur has made it so with his admission from March where he said, “You have to lose all the respect you have for him (Nadal) and just play him as another player.” Rafael Nadal, though, is not just any player, as elements like form and court conditions go out the window in favor of willpower and resilience. The Spaniard has this in abundance, but age is catching up with the 37-year-old, and April 27 could be his last bow at Caja Mágica. 

Rafael Nadal vs Alex de Minaur: Madrid Open (Round of 64) Preview

Rafael Nadal’s biggest concern heading into the match against De Minaur is his lack of on-court minutes. The Spaniard has increased his intensity in practice and can tap into his years of big-match experience, but Saturday’s encounter will mark only his seventh ATP outing for the season. The five-time Madrid champion has a 4-2 record for 2024 and an advantage over his opponent in one aspect. He overcame Darwin Blanch in the opening round, 6-1, 6-0, and has an understanding of how the Madrid courts have been playing. 

Nadal’s two wins on clay this season have come against youngsters, where he has been largely unchallenged. The Spanish great faced just two break points against Flavio Cobolli in Barcelona and Blanch in Madrid. On Saturday, ‘Demon’ will test the Spaniard’s service just as he did in their previous outing. Can he have the same success? 

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The 25-year-old Aussie has generated a whopping 49 breakpoints in six matches on clay, converting 24 of them. 5 of these came against the 22-time Slam champion last week, indicating De Minaur will not allow the World No.512 free service games. 

The 37-year-old is not averse to a battle of attrition, but the output he may need to simply hold serves and win a point against a player in his 32nd match of the season may deplete him. He did save four break points against the Australian in their last match, with three coming in set two. These came in two separate games, with ‘Rafa’ saving one in the first but giving up the break at the third time of asking in the fifth game. This can be taken as Rafael Nadal having felt the pressure with De Minaur constantly knocking on the door. 

Rafael Nadal breaking serve can be a way out, as De Minaur has not yet had a serving clinic on clay. The Australian has been broken 15 times on the dirt in 32 attempts. However, just one of these came against ‘Rafa,’ who had 3 attempts. In Barcelona, the 37-year-old had two break-point opportunities and converted the second to draw level at 3-3 in the opener. ‘The King of Clay’ even had a chance to take a 3-5 lead but squandered a breakpoint at 30-40 to allow Alex to draw level at 4-4. He went on to win just 5 more points over the next 4 games to surrender the set 7-5. The 22-time Slam champion was rattled and went on to lose the next set 6-1. 

Alex de Minaur did beat Rafael Nadal in Barcelona, but the courts will play differently at a higher altitude. This is also a factor against the Spaniard, who has not seen as much success in Madrid (5 wins) when compared to Monte Carlo (11 wins), Barcelona (12 wins), Rome (10 wins), and the French Open (14 wins). 

Rafael Nadal vs Alex De Minaur: Head-to-Head

Alex de Minaur and Rafael Nadal have played five matches, with the Spaniard having the advantage. He leads 3-2 but is 0-2 in their last two encounters and 1-2 in 3-set matches. 

• 2024 Barcelona Round 2: Nadal lost to De Minaur 5-7, 1-6
• 2023 United Cup: Nadal lost to De Minaur 6-3, 1-6, 5-7
• 2020 ATP Cup Semifinals: Nadal beat De Minaur 4-6, 7-5, 6-1
• 2019 Australian Open Round 3: Nadal beat De Minaur 6-1, 6-2, 6-4
• 2018 Wimbledon Round 3: Nadal beat De Minaur 6-1, 6-2, 6-4

Nadal’s last win over the Australian came in January 2020. Three of these matches have come on outdoor hardcourts, and one each on grass and clay courts. The 25-year-old has the win on clay with it coming just 10 days before their Round of 64 clash. 

‘The King of Clay’ losing two early rounds in a row on his turf to anyone seems unthinkable. However, his struggles to regain full fitness and De Minaur’s ascendancy may see it happen. One can be sure that Rafael Nadal will not go gentle into that good night. He will rage against the dying of the light.

Prediction: Alex De Minaur to beat Rafael Nadal in three sets

Alex de Minaur’s last win on tour came against Rafael Nadal. He will have the psychological advantage against the Spaniard and can equal his career head-to-head numbers against the icon. 

The five-time Madrid champion made a claim after his last loss, which came against De Minaur. Now, he will look to live up to his “one more step in Madrid” vow when he crosses paths with the ‘Demon.’ This could see him taking a set and it coming down to the key moments in the match. 

Nadal will need to capitalize on the break point opportunities to sow the seeds of doubt in his opponent. This can lead to De Minaur possibly having second thoughts and allowing his opponent to wrest control despite his claim of treating ‘Rafa’ as any other player. Their match 10 days ago may have had a different story altogether had Nadal broken in the opener for a 3-5 lead. 

Alex, though, will tap into the knowledge that service breaks will be there for him. He has not had the best conversion rate on clay but still managed to pull through as he raised his game on the crucial points. 

Rafael Nadal will make De Minaur run and earn every point. The Australian will oblige and do the same with his opponent. The age and lack of court time will play a part and work against the legend.