“I think the more matches I obviously play at this level will keep helping my confidence on this surface,” said a confident Jack Draper after earning yet another clay-court win this week at the Madrid Open. The 23-year-old Brit has been showing remarkable form after failing to shine in Miami and the Monte Carlo Masters following his Indian Wells Masters triumph in March.

Draper will look to make a deeper run at the ongoing ATP 1000 Masters tournament as he gears up for the next battle. Having reached the round of the last eight, the World No.6 will now go against Matteo Arnaldi on Thursday. Can he continue his invincible form against the Italian? Let’s try to find out!

Jack Draper v Matteo Arnaldi: Preview

Jack Draper’s 2025 season has been highly impressive and stable so far in most events, if not all. Back in January, he succeeded in reaching the fourth round of the Australian Open before losing to Spain’s Carlos Alcaraz. Then at the Qatar Open, the Brit made an impressive run, entering the final. Unfortunately, he couldn’t lift the trophy owing to a loss against Andrey Rublev. However, he kept his consistent form going to earn a maiden ATP 1000 trophy a month later, in March. In the final clash, Draper beat Denmark’s Holger Rune to win the Indian Wells Masters title with a score line of 6-2, 6-2.

After the BNP Paribas Open, however, Draper’s form took a dip. In Miami, he was ousted early against eventual winner Jakub Mensik. Then at the Monte Carlo Masters, he crashed out in R16 with a defeat against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. But it appears he’s managed to get back to winning ways in Madrid. The 23-year-old began his campaign with a straight-set victory over Tallon Griekspoor. He then received a direct spot in R16 after his opponent, Italy’s Matteo Berrettini, retired due to an injury. On Wednesday, Draper took down America’s Tommy Paul in straight sets (6-2, 6-2) to book a spot in the quarterfinals.

Speaking of his opponent, Italy’s Matteo Arnaldi’s season has been inconsistent. He started the year with an early R16 exit at the Brisbane International. Then at the Australian Open, too, the fate remained unchanged. He crashed out in the first round after losing to compatriot Lorenzo Musetti. However, he showed some promising form at the next event in Dallas. After reaching the QF round, he was ousted by Spain’s Jaume Munar.

At the Delray Beach Open, Arnaldi did one better and succeeded in entering the semis. But he couldn’t move forward after losing to Spain’s Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. In the next five events, however, the Italian struggled with the form. At the Mexican Open, Indian Wells, Miami Open, Monte Carlo Masters, and Barcelona Open, he crashed out in R32, R32, R64, R64, and R32, respectively. Going into the Madrid Open, Arnaldi appears to have regained the momentum.

In the opener, he beat Croatia’s Borna Coric before pulling off the big upset in R64. Arnaldi managed to stun 24-time slam king Novak Djokovic and eliminated him with a score line of 6-3, 6-4. Then in R32, the 24-year-old ousted Bosnia’s Damir Džumhur before taking down America’s Frances Tiafoe (6-3, 7-5) to seal the spot in the QF.

Draper v Arnaldi: Head-to-Head

Both players have never met in an ATP event. Currently, the h2h tally stands at 0-0. Thursday’s encounter will mark their maiden face-off on the professional level.

Prediction: Jack Draper to win in straight sets

Jack Draper has a big edge over Matteo Arnaldi in terms of the singles stats this season. With an impressive win percentage of 80.95, the Brit has won 17 of his 21 matches. On the other hand, the Italian has won 13 of his 22 matches so far. Now, what about the event history for these two?

Well, Draper’s prior experience has been forgettable at best in Madrid. In his last two appearances (2022 and 2024), he couldn’t move past the R32 and R64, respectively. Arnaldi’s run on the clay court in this ATP 1000 event is no different. In his last two campaigns (2023 and 2024), the Italian crashed out in R32 and then R64.

Coming to their playing styles, Draper prefers to play with his left hand despite being a natural right-hander. He’s fond of dominating matches from the baseline using his solid serves and smooth on-court movement. In short, his court coverage is excellent between the net and the baseline. Not to forget his powerful, left-handed serve. Especially the one that is sliced, in order to earn him crucial points. When it comes to Arnaldi, he likes to hit big baseline shots. Combine that with a solid forehand to inflict damage on the opponents while keeping them under pressure.

Considering the overall form in 2025, the Brit clearly looks the favorite for Thursday’s match. Jack Draper is expected to win the QF against Arnaldi in straight sets and move into the semis.