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Monte-Carlo Masters 2024: Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti; Prediction, Head-to-Head, Prediction

Published 04/11/2024, 2:55 AM EDT

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The Serbinator Novak Djokovic has advanced in the Monte Carlo Masters and is looking to wreak havoc with another player. His next opponent will be Lorenzo Musetti, who is on his own streak in the Monte Carlo Country Club. The Serbian great is looking to make his career even more glorious with another title, while the Italian 22-year-old is looking to add a prominent title to his name.

Both players were uncertain when they entered the tournament, but they started it with a bang and aim to continue with a bang. However, victory will only go to the one who shows up with complete focus.

Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti: Prediction

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Djokovic had a great run in the 2024 Australian Open, where he lost to Jannik Sinner in the semifinal. However, his exit concerned fans as he lost to a brutal 6-1, 6-2, 6-7, 6-3 to Sinner. He then played in the Indian Wells Masters, where he lost to Luca Nardi in the second round. He skipped Miami as he felt recovery was required and returned to Monte Carlo to completely dash the hopes of Roman Safiullin.

via Reuters

He won the bout against the Russian 6-1, 6-2, offering him no quarter. With 1 ace and no double faults, the Djoker would win 77% of points on his first serve, with an even more astounding 92% of points on his second serve. He gave no break points to Safiullin but struggled to win 5 of the 19 break points that came his way. Additionally, the Russian player only managed to win 6 points when Djokovic served, posing a daunting competition for Musetti.

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The Italian player struggled to go beyond round 2 of any tournament he played in 2024, with the Miami Open and Monte Carlo being the only exceptions. He suffered a disappointing exit in the first round of the Estoril Open, but he surprised the competition with a 6-4, 6-4 win against Taylor Fritz in the first round. Musetti put 3 aces past the American with 2 double faults to win 78% of his first-serve points. He took 4 of the 5 break points he faced and went on to eliminate Fritz.

He then played against Arthur Fils, who was also defeated in straight sets, 6-3, 7-5, who also gave a tough competition to Musetti but lost 6-3, 7-5. The Italian player put 2 serves past Fils with two double faults. He won 68% of points on his first serve while winning 62% on his second serve. Musetti won 4 break points but also gave nine games in a row to Fils.

Djokovic vs Musetti: Head-to-Head

Musetti and Djokovic have traded blows against each other four times in their careers. Two of their matches have been played on clay, including their first match. The 2021 French Open housed their first match, which was pushed to five sets. Musetti won the first two sets 7-6, 7-6, but could hold the lead as Djokovic returned with 6-1, 6-0 wins. In the fifth set, Musetti retired during the first game, which gave their first match to the Djoker.

Their next clay clash took place in the 2023 Monte Carlo Masters, where Musetti had his revenge in three sets 4-6, 7-6, 6-4. The rest of their matches were played on outdoor and indoor hard, both of which were won by Djokovic.

  • 2022 Dubai Tennis Championships round of 32: Djokovic 6-3, 6-3
  • 2022 Paris Masters quarterfinal: Djokovic 6-0, 6-3

Djokovic clearly holds the dominant position when it comes to their head-to-head. However, the two are equal on clay, and one player will gain the advantage in the upcoming bout. 

Prediction: Djokovic to take revenge for 2023 Monte Carlo

Although the Serbian struggles in Miami, he is back in top shape and showed his form against Safiullin. The Djoker is a ruthless player who likely has not forgotten the defeat he suffered against the Musetti. While any player would be fearful to face Djokovic, Musetti is excited to get a chance to repeat his 2023 feat. “It’s kind of fun, because it’s exactly one year, same tournament, same round, and same spot,” said Musetti in his post-match conference. 

via Reuters

The biggest advantage on Djokovic’s side currently is his service. During his serves, Safiullin only managed to take 6 points, which is a figure that might repeat when Musetti returns. Additionally, the Italian player’s serve did not put him far above his two opponents, which is bound to suffer against the Djoker. 

Another problem plaguing the 22-year-old is staying consistent. After his bout against Fils, he said, “I think I played probably one of the best matches of the season, and that’s why I was leading [the match]. At the end I was rushing a little bit or playing a little bit, let’s say, softer.” If a similar mindset does find him during a lead, he will be thoroughly punished by the world number 1.

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Djokovic, on the other hand, had revenge in his mind before his match with Musetti was confirmed. After beating Safiullin, he said, “I’m not scared of anything and anybody, but I really hope that I can get the chance to play him again, get the matchup, another matchup here.” His comments only show that he will be more ruthless than he has ever been.

via Reuters

However, not all cards are stacked against him. He beat Djokovic in the 2023 Monte Carlo, which was a defeat no one saw coming. He can repeat the feat if he finds holes in the Serbinator’s performance, which are absent at the moment. 

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The match is around the corner and will entertain the tennis world. Now, we only have to wait for the players to arrive on the court.

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Written by:

Ripunjay Gaba

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Ripunjay Gaba, a tennis enthusiast-turned-journalist at EssentiallySports, found his way from freelance sports journalism to the publishing house in ES. Here, his writing canvas encompasses the game specifics while finding poetic resonance in covering major sporting events. Ripunjay, a perpetual upgrader, uses avid reading to bring varied flavor to his Tennis reporting.
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Edited by:

Ananya Giri