If there is one question plaguing every tennis enthusiast right now, it is when will Rafael Nadal make his comeback, and will it be in the 2023 French Open? Looking at the first half of Rafa’s 2023 season- it is really disappointing to see everyone’s favorite Spaniard sidelined with a gruesome injury. For a player like Nadal who has been in the professional circuit for over 22 years now, injuries, despite occurring frequently, have never seemed so grave as to make him fall out of the top 10.

Every time Nadal confirms his participation in a tournament, he withdraws it weeks later owing to the status of the hip injury that he suffered during the Australian Open 2023. While his withdrawal from the Indian Wells Masters and the Miami Open seemed to be a safe decision to his fans, they ardently hoped for his grand comeback on clay. However, the prospects of that currently seem bleaker than ever with the King of Clay withdrawing from tournaments like Monte Carlo, where he was, in fact, the first to register.

Rafael Nadal’s last game played in 2023 before the injury

Nadal, the top seed at the 2023 Australian Open and a 22-time Grand Slam champion, suffered a disappointing defeat in the second round against Mackenzie McDonald, losing 4-6, 4-6, 5-7. The 35-year-old Spaniard appeared to be in discomfort throughout the match, pulling up awkwardly during a point in the second set and requiring a medical timeout.

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In the stands, he went to his wife and trainer, who had concerned looks on their faces. His wife was wiping his tears away, and it looked like she was trying to get him to calm down. Although he quickly came back to the court, it was evident that he wasn’t feeling fine.

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Nadal has been grappling with health issues from that moment, including a left hip flexor injury that is keeping him sidelined. Since the Australian Open, he has withdrawn from other major tournaments like the Indian Wells, Miami Open, and the Monte Carlo Masters.

His exit at the Australian Open records as his shortest time on the court since exiting the court in 2016 against Fernando Verdasco. The grave injury now adds to the mix of gruesome health problems that have hindered his career, including torn abdominal muscles and injured ribs.

How has Rafael Nadal’s on-court absence affected his rankings?

Nadal entered the ATP top 10 rankings in April 2005. Since then, he has never once faltered to maintain his position and has competed at the highest level for the next 18 years. However, this season brought further disappointment for Rafa fans as he dropped out of the top 10 rankings.

As per the current ATP ranking, Nadal holds the world no.14 spot with 2,715 points. However, this ranking is further set to dip owing to his withdrawal from the Madrid Open. Last year, Nadal went on to the quarter-final of the ATP Masters 1000, so now he is set to drop 180 points when the rankings are updated after Madrid.

Although his participation in the Italian Open is still a mystery, in the last season he competed till the third round in Rome. This means that if he is unable to confirm his participation, he will further drop 90 points. So that’s a total of 270 points dropping from his current position. However, even if he drops 270 points, he would still be standing with 2445 points ahead of the French Open, which will earn him a spot in the top 20.

If the 14-time champion is unable to defend his French Open crown, then he will drop 2,000 points and be left with 445 points which would put him around the 130th position in the current rankings.

Nadal’s winning feat in the 2022 French Open

Rafael Nadal, at 36 years old, secured his 14th Roland Garros title at the French Open 2022 and with that, the King of Clay secured his 22nd Grand Slam titles. With a commanding straight-set victory over American ATP icon Casper Ruud in the final, Nadal triumphed over a chronic left foot injury that had raised doubts about his participation earlier that season. The injury needed extensive medication and professional care before Rafa could step foot on the court.

Ending a series of grueling matches against formidable opponents in the previous rounds, Nadal triumphed with a 6-3, 6-3, 6-0 win in the final, earning his position as the oldest ATP player to clinch the Roland Garros title since 1972. Nadal’s unparalleled record at the French Open, with 112 wins and just 3 losses, and his pursuit of a calendar men’s Grand Slam last achieved in 1969 by Rod Laver, further cemented his status as one of the all-time greats in tennis.

In the final, Nadal displayed his trademark skill and control, breaking Ruud’s serve multiple times and wrapping up the match in just under two hours.

Rafael Nadal’s participation in the French Open 2023 remains doubtful

After Nadal withdrew from the Madrid Open, his fans now look towards Rome to see Rafa on the court. Rafa’s uncle and former coach Toni Nadal also expressed his opinions on Nadal’s participation in the French Open. He stated, “Rafa is recovering, I think it won’t be long before he can compete again. But in the tournament here (the Madrid Open) it could not be. Obviously, he will not arrive with good preparation, we must not fool ourselves, because, obviously, since January 10 I think, he hasn’t played any matches”. 

Like Toni Nadal, Daniil Medvedev and many other tennis players believe that Nadal is indeed aiming for a comeback. However, with the hip flexor injury and a grade 2 lesion in the Iliacus Psoas of his left leg, Rafa would take a maximum of 8 weeks to heal, which he himself confessed on an Instagram post.

Nadal’s participation in the French Open is now solely based on his injury. However, his fans remain hopeful as the King of Clay himself keeps updating them on his progress from time to time.

He posted a picture on Instagram where he can be seen practicing at the Rafael Nadal Tennis Academy, gearing up for clay.

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So it really might not be a far-fetched dream after all to see Rafael Nadal step on the Philippe-Chatrier at the 2023 French Open!