ATP World Number One Battle: Can Novak Djokovic End the Year on Top or Will Rafael Nadal Hold on?

World No.2 Rafael Nadal recaptures the No.1 spot at the ATP rankings despite being absent from the ongoing Shanghai Rolex Masters 2019 as the defending champion Novak Djokovic failed to make it to the last four after he was defeated by Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals on Friday.

Rafael Nadal will return to the top of the world rankings next month after the Paris Masters 2019 regardless of his and Novak’s results in the final masters 1000 tournament of the season. Even if the Spaniard does not participate in Bercy, he will end up clinching the top spot in ATP rankings.

Furthermore, Djokovic will not win any points in the ATP 500 events in Basel and Vienna as he is committed to playing in an exhibition event in Astana, Kazakhstan with Rafael Nadal.

The four-time champion Djokovic managed to win only 180 points in Shanghai after claiming 500 points at the Japan Open 2019 last week and is 1280 points behind Rafael Nadal in year-to-date live ATP rankings. The French Open and US Open champion has earned 9,225 points in the 2019 season till now, while Djokovic is following behind with 7,945 points. 

While Novak Djokovic will certainly lose his No.1 position after the Paris Masters but then also he could win the year-end ATP world No.1 trophy after the ATP finals in London.

Novak Djokovic’s scenario

The 16-time Grand Slam champion has to win the ATP finals title in November and hope that Rafael Nadal does not win more than one match in the round-robin in order to dethrone Nadal from the No.1 position.

Rafael Nadal’s scenario

On the other hand, the 19-time Grand Slam champion will have to win two round-robin matches at the ATP Finals and therefore reach the semifinals to guarantee the year-end No.1 trophy.

Roger Federer’s scenario

While Roger Federer will not be able to get back to the top spot in the world rankings as even if the Swiss maestro wins in Basel, Vienna, Paris, and London then he will earn 3500 points, totaling to 9,190 ATP points – which is still short of Nadal’s current 9,225 points.

Ending the year as the world no.1 would be essential for Novak Djokovic to break Roger Federer’s record as he would assure ten more weeks at the top counting the offseason and the end of the Australian Open 2020.