Battle For World Number 3: Daniil Medvedev Given a Boost as Roger Federer Withdraws from Rolex Paris Masters 2019

World No.3 Roger Federer pulled out of the Rolex Paris Masters 2019 as he stated recovery to be his reason for withdrawal and needs more physical rest after clinching a record 10th title at the Swiss Indoors Basel 2019 on Sunday.

With Federer’s withdrawal, he opens up the battle for the year-end No.3 position in the ATP rankings between him and Daniil Medvedev. Currently, Roger Federer is 495 points ahead of Daniil Medvedev at the ATP Race To London.

1. Best case scenario for Daniil Medvedev:

Daniil Medvedev has reached six consecutive finals on the ATP tour and seemed unstoppable in the summer hard-court season. If the Russian star wins the Rolex Paris Masters 1000, he will gain 100 points and his points tally would come to 7,190.

At the Nitto ATP Finals 2019, if Medvedev wins all his round-robin matches and becomes an undefeated champion then he will bag a total of 1500 points more in London which would sum up a total aggregate to 8,195 points and will guarantee him the 3rd position in the year-end ATP rankings.

Even if Medvedev reaches the finals of the Rolex Paris Masters 2019 and ATP Finals 2019, then he can guarantee himself the No.3 spot unless Roger Federer wins the title at ATP Finals.

2. Best case scenario for Roger Federer:

If Roger Federer wins the ATP Finals 2019 title with all the three round-robin wins, he will finish No.3 in the ATP rankings with 7,490 points. Even if Federer wins the ATP Finals with two round-robin wins and Medvedev wins the Paris Masters 1000 and reaches the final in London with at least two victories at the round-robin, the Russian will end up getting 5 more points than Federer to elevate at the No.3 position.

Roger Federer will, therefore, hope to win the ATP Finals undefeated to ensure the No.3 rank disregard to Medvedev’s result at both the tournaments.

3. Worst case scenario for Daniil Medvedev: 

Daniil Medvedev is already 495 points behind Roger Federer and taking his worst-case scenarios at the Paris Masters and ATP Finals will not let him cross Federer even if the Swiss Maestro does not win a single match at the ATP Finals 2019.

Daniil Medvedev has to win at least 500 points in both the tournaments combined and hope that Federer gets defeated in all his three round-robin matches in London.

4. Worst case scenario for Roger Federer:

If the 20-time Grand Slam champion does not win a single match at the ATP Finals, he can still achieve the year-end No.3 rank if Medvedev gets knocked out in the semifinals in Paris or earlier rounds and loses all of his matches in London else, loses at least 2 round-robin matches in ATP Finals and does not reach the semifinals at the Rolex Paris Masters 2019.