“I keep hearing ‘three time’s a charm’ or ‘third time lucky.’ I don’t really believe in luck. I feel like I’m a better fighter now,” Anthony Yarde has stated. Stepping out of the shadows of the past setback, namely the losses to Sergey Kovalev and Artur Beterbiev, he steps in to face one of the biggest names in modern boxing, David Benavidez. Many believe Yarde might finally crack it. But as Yarde implied, luck is when opportunity meets hard work. He has the chance, and as he claims, Yarde’s put in the effort to sweeten the pot. But is it as simple as it sounds? Benavidez has promised ‘total domination.’

Anthony Yarde faces the mean ‘Mexican Monster’. Will the 34-year-old Englishman be able to withstand David Benavidez‘s unrelenting pressure? An exciting turn of events has brought two of the most formidable light heavyweights to headline the Night of the Champions. While fans and pundits have a clear favorite, a few still don’t rule out an upset either. Including Yarde, they know it might as well be his last chance at a world title.

Predicting David Benavidez vs. Anthony Yarde: Who has better stats and a record?

Though record and experience display slight parity, a deeper look suggests contrast. Yarde made his professional debut two years after Benavidez did, in 2013. In a decade-long career, he has participated in 30 professional fights. His American counterpart boasts a similar figure with aplomb.

But the similarities end there. Quality narrates a different story. David Benavidez remains unbeaten, period. Anthony Yarde, on the other hand, has had to suffer three defeats. After Kovalev, fellow Englishman Lyndon Arthur inflicted his second loss before Beterbiev added one more to the ledger.

It’s the strike rate that may allow Yarde to keep his neck high. With nearly 89% of his 27 opponents facing the ignominy of early stoppage, he leads Benavidez, whose knockout-to-win rate stands at 80%.

David Benavidez vs. Anthony Yarde: Height, weight, reach comparison, and more

Physically the American champion might be at an advantage. At 188 centimeters, he’s two inches taller than Yarde, a six-footer. Then Benavidez records a 74.5-inch reach, two and a half more than Yarde’s 72-inch wingspan.

Both Benavidez and Yarde tipped the scale at 174.2 pounds during their last bouts – “El Monstro” against David Morrell and Yarde during the trilogy fight against rival Lyndon Arthur. Results of the latest weigh-in are available now. Benavidez weighed 174.3 pounds, and Yarde, 173.9 pounds.

Fight prediction

With some outlets giving him a 97% chance of winning, David Benavidez remains the heavy favorite. A more reasonable assessment gives Yarde at least a 16% chance of winning. The bottom line nonetheless remains unchanged – the English light heavyweight steps in as a huge underdog.

It could be partly due to the recent spate of fights and the overall reputation. Yarde may have a better KO rate. But his resume lacks wins over formidable names. Benavidez, on the other hand, kept working on his game. After destroying the likes of Caleb Plant and Demetrious Andrade in super middleweight, he defeated Oleksandr Gvozdyk and Morrell to consolidate his position at 175 pounds.

Add to that his reputation as a heavy hitter and the overall improvement in his fighting style, where he has remarkably upgraded his defensive skills, and betting on 28-year-old Benavidez appears a safer option.

Styles and strategy

Benavidez by KO seems to be the raging anthem. But is it going to be as easy as it appears? Yarde must have fine-tuned his training to prepare himself for Benavidez’s pressure tactics. Unlike many champions, Benavidez doesn’t waste much time testing his opponents during the initial rounds.

He goes for the attack right from the opening bell. So by mid-fight, he’s able to break them up with ease. Barring the exception of the David Lemieux fight, from Anthony Dirrell to Angulo and later Andrade, most fights ended during the later half of the bout. So fans should expect a similar pattern when he takes on Yarde.

What could possibly offset Benavidez’s rhythm and pace will be Yarde’s unpredictability.

Kovalev and Beterbiev knocked out Yarde. But the stoppages occurred during or just before the championship rounds. Considering reports suggesting Benavidez is struggling at 175 pounds and taking a leaf out of Morrell’s book, Yarde could force Benavidez on the back foot in rounds 1-3. He’s not one to shy away from fighting in pockets either. So a slugfest against a natural light heavyweight like Yarde might drain Benavidez.

Benavidez has been working hard on improving his defense. But he still follows a linear approach. So Yarde could cut the angles, making it difficult for the American to lodge his piercing body shots.

Still, putting the “Mexican Monster” to sleep appears a tall order.

Do you think Yarde can pull off an upset?