As the neon lights of Madison Square Garden prepare to beam down on July 11, boxing fans are sharpening their scorecards and clearing their schedules. Headlining the electric MVP all-women’s card is the legendary Taylor vs. Serrano III trilogy, but first up in the Champion vs. Champion showcase? A clash that’s as technically compelling as it is emotionally charged—Ellie Scotney vs. Yamileth Mercado for the unified female super bantamweight title.

In one corner, we have the undefeated English technician, Ellie Scotney, the IBF and WBO champion whose rise through the ranks has been brisk, clinical, and almost poetic. On the other, stands the hardened Mexican warrior, the WBC female super bantamweight champion Yamileth Mercado, whose resume screams grit and endurance. The two 27-year-olds bring different energies to the ring: Scotney, with her polished footwork and sharp angles honed during a standout amateur run; and Mercado, the battle-tested survivor who’s been walking into fire long before Scotney laced her pro gloves.

With Netflix streaming the bout globally and an all-female supercard lighting up New York, the stakes for this unification bout couldn’t be higher. But while the arena will roar, let’s turn the noise down for a moment and dig into what truly separates these two, on paper and in the ring.

Predicting Ellie Scotney vs Yamileth Mercado: Who has better stats and record?

Ellie Scotney has stormed into the pro ranks like a well-rehearsed orchestra—precise, timed, and calculated. Holding an unblemished record of 10-0, the English champion carries the IBF, WBO, and IBO super-bantamweight belts. Her last five bouts—all unanimous decisions—include wins over Segolene Lefebvre, Mea Motu, and Cherneka Johnson. Impressively, she’s averaged a fight every 6 months and 16 days over the past 2 years and 8 months, logging a total of 50 rounds—all full 10-rounders. Clearly, ring rust is not in her vocabulary.

Meanwhile, Yamileth Mercado comes into the ring with a more seasoned professional record of 24-3, including 5 knockouts. The Mexican champion has been the WBC titleholder since 2019 and has faced stiffer competition in terms of resume, most notably Amanda Serrano back in 2021. But the numbers whisper a truth: Mercado hasn’t fought in over a year. While she brings veteran experience and resilience, her recent activity—or lack thereof—raises concerns about her rhythm against a volume-heavy fighter like Scotney.

As for the bookies? The numbers are loud and clear. Box.Live currently has Scotney as a 2/13 (-670) favorite, while Mercado trails as a 9/2 (+450) underdog, giving the Englishwoman a hefty 82.71% chance of victory. That said, Mercado’s odds to win by knockout hover around 14/1 (+1400), reflecting her 21% KO ratio—a stark contrast to Scotney’s 0%.

The final verdict? As ClutchPoints’ Jaren Kawada aptly put it, “Scotney’s boxing IQ, footwork, and pressure are next-level, and something Mercado has yet to face in her career.” Unless Mercado turns back the clock with a statement performance, it’s hard to see past Scotney notching up her eleventh win.

Scotney vs Mercado height, weight, reach comparison, and more

Let’s crunch the numbers. Ellie Scotney stands at 5’4″ (163 cm), giving her no visible advantage over Yamileth Mercado, who also measures in at 5’4″ (163 cm). Both women fight out of the orthodox stance, and both will step onto the scales at 121½ lbs and 119½ lbs, respectively.

Their reach stats remain undisclosed, though Scotney appears to control distance more effectively, an edge that could prove vital given her style. Where Scotney uses angles and footwork to score, Mercado is more linear and compact in her movement—strong in close-range exchanges but potentially vulnerable at range.

Activity-wise, the Englishwoman once again edges it slightly. She’s already fought once this year, while Mercado hasn’t entered the ring since her June 2024 win over Ramla Ali. That’s a gap in sharpness that could show early, especially considering Scotney’s reputation as a fast starter.

Box.Live also adds an intriguing stat—despite having fought 17 fewer bouts, Scotney has matched Mercado in total rounds fought (61 rounds each), underscoring just how long and testing her recent matchups have been.

Still, don’t count the Mexican out entirely. With 5 career knockouts and a proven chin, Mercado’s not here to pad anyone’s resume. But stylistically? Scotney’s methodical, high-volume offense may just be too much for her to keep up with over 10 rounds.

Final Prediction: Ellie Scotney by unanimous decision. Mercado’s grit will keep it competitive—but the Brit’s engine, timing, and sharper reflexes may carry her past the finish line once more. That is, if Yamileth Mercado doesn’t finish the fight within the 10 rounds.