It’s finally D-day as Manny Pacquiao returns from retirement in just a few hours to face WBC welterweight champion Mario Barrios, live on Amazon Prime Video pay-per-view. Whether Pacquiao’s comeback proves to be a misstep or another chapter in his legendary career remains to be seen. At 46, Pacquiao is older than George Foreman was when he famously knocked out Michael Moorer in 1994 to win the IBF and WBA heavyweight titles. Given the legacy Pacquiao has already cemented, his chances remain a compelling 50-50.

On the other side, Mario Barrios is no stranger to the big stage. He stood toe-to-toe with Gervonta ‘Tank’ Davis in a 2021 firefight before being stopped in the 11th round and followed that with a decision loss to Keith Thurman. Since then, however, Barrios has bounced back, capturing the interim WBC welterweight title with a win over Yordenis Ugas, later elevated to full champion status after Terence Crawford moved up in weight. In his first title defense last November, Barrios fought Abel Ramos to a draw. With momentum on his side and a title to protect, Barrios has every reason to go all in. So, which of the two warriors will have his hand raised at the MGM Grand tonight? Come, let’s take a look.

Predicting Manny Pacquiao vs. Mario Barrios: Who has better stats and record? 

Starting with boxing’s only eight-division world champion, the Filipino legend undoubtedly brings more experience to the table. He turned professional on January 22, 1995 (four months before Mario Barrios was even born) and has since competed in 72 professional bouts, amassing 62 wins, 8 losses, and 2 draws, with 39 of his 62 wins coming by way of knockout. Over the course of his storied career, Manny Pacquiao has fought a whopping total of 498 professional rounds, maintaining an impressive knockout ratio of 62.9%.

In contrast, Mario Barrios began his professional career on November 11, 2013, and has participated in 32 bouts, earning 29 wins, 2 losses, and 1 draw, with 18 of his 29 wins coming through knockouts. He’s fought 198 professional rounds with a knockout rate of 62.07%. While PacMan may boast the superior resume and deeper ring experience, it’s important to note that El Azteca is the younger, more active fighter, 16 years his junior, which could prove to be a crucial advantage on fight night. Of course, beyond statistics and records, several other key factors could influence how this matchup unfolds. So, come, let’s explore those as well.

Manny Pacquiao vs. Mario Barrios height, weight, reach comparison, and more

Starting with physical attributes, Manny Pacquiao stands at 5′5½″ (166 cm), giving up a noticeable height advantage to his opponent, Mario Barrios, who measures 6′ 0″ (183 cm). The disparity extends to reach as well, as Pacquiao’s reach is 67″ (170 cm), while Barrios enjoys a longer 71″ (180 cm) wingspan. In terms of weight, Manny Pacquiao, who began his career at flyweight (112 lbs) has spent the past decade competing comfortably at 147 lbs. And for this bout, he tipped the scales at 146.8 lbs, whereas Barrios, the reigning WBC welterweight champion, weighed in just slightly lighter at 146.2 lbs.

According to one platform, Barrios is the betting favorite at -275, while Manny Pacquiao is listed at +210 underdog. In terms of finish outcomes, a KO/TKO/DQ win for Pacquiao sits at +500, while Barrios is at +135. For a decision, Pacquiao stands at +500, and Barrios at +200.

Still, the outcome may come down to whether Pacquiao can overcome the physical disadvantages at 46. While Pacquiao might retain a power edge and better footwork, he’ll have to absorb Barrios’ jabs and combinations to get inside range and land effectively. His legendary footwork could help him slip past Barrios’ long reach in the early rounds, but at 46, there are legitimate concerns about how much of that movement he still has left, especially in he later rounds. Moreover, those who watched his exhibition bout against Rukiya Anpo last year noted a clear decline in his speed, especially the foot-speed that once made him nearly untouchable.

So, if Mario Barrios fights with discipline, uses his jab effectively, controls distance, manages the ring smartly, and avoids brawling with an insider fighter like Manny, he could cruise to a decision win and retain his title. But this is boxing, and nothing is guaranteed. The sport is full of surprises, and Manny Pacquiao’s legendary career has been built on defying the odds. And if fate wills it, he could seal the deal with an early knockout and become the new oldest welterweight world champion in history.

That said, who do you see emerging victorious in this high-stakes showdown?