Duke’s blue-blood pedigree means nothing heading into March Madness, and according to one ESPN insider, a single, glaring statistic proves they’re in for a rude awakening. Duke, which is used to having that aura of invincibility about them, will now have to embrace a different reality where they won’t be deemed as favorites because of the lack of returning minutes in a game.

According to Tim Donnelly, “If you look at the top 10, Duke has the fewest returning minutes. Some teams, such as Purdue returns over 61% of their minutes from last year, Duke just barely above the average for everyone in the entire country, with 24.4%. They are 170th in returning minutes. Michigan, who they are playing, has a 31 and a half percent. Right, so there’s a big difference here…And they didn’t hit the transfer portal a bunch, which I consider almost stealing someone else’s experience.”

“Great, you grab three years of experience playing for them. I want you to take everything you’ve learned over there, bring it over, and help us. Duke didn’t do that. So if you look at KenPom, that say the top 10 are most likely contenders to win it all, Duke is easily the least experienced team in the group of top contenders. Easily,” says Donnelly, highlighting the simple factor that makes them underdogs.

Here’s what ‘returning minutes’ actually means for a team’s chemistry. The concept of returning minutes is the total time played by returning players from the previous season, which is often expressed as a percentage of total team minutes. It is usually calculated as a percentage, and it is directly proportional to better team stability and chemistry. So the better the percentage, the better the team looks on paper and vice versa.

Now there’s a reason behind that, as Duke has not used the services of the transfer portal. Except for Maliq Brown, who made his way from Syracuse, the team hardly has any players who bring in that level of experience. Now that is what they will have to contend with as Donnelly stresses how experience is key during March Madness.

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Duke’s average is just higher than the nation’s average of 23.7%, and that doesn’t help much, he believes. Michigan is already on 31%, Purdue has 61%, and Houston has 43.5%, Florida has over 40%, so there’s a huge gap between Jon Scheyer’s team and the others on the KenPom list.

So, will Duke be able to break free of this adversity facing them?

Jon Scheyer’s Duke Is About To Grapple With Top-Ranked Michigan

What was supposed to be a neutral-court, non-conference game between Duke and Michigan with big stakes has now gotten considerably bigger.

It’s now a clash between the top and the third-ranked team on the AP poll as they lock horns in the Capital Showcase in Washington, D.C.

Michigan, which has now surpassed Arizona to take up the top spot, has done so with panache, courtesy of its 11-game winning streak. Their 11-game winning streak includes dominant victories over teams like Nebraska, UCLA, and Purdue. Jon Scheyer knows that quite well and is aware of the dangers they bring into the competition.

“It was very clear that they were going to be one of the best teams in the country when we scheduled this game. But again, you don’t know they are going to be No. 1, and you hope you’re going to be really good. You never know before the season starts,” said Jon Scheyer

Truly so, as everyone expected Michigan to hold on to the second position, as Arizona looked well on course to hold its lead effectively. But then disaster struck as Tommy Lloyd clashed against Bill Self’s Kansas, and then another roadblock against Texas Tech meant they had no other choice but to relinquish their hold of the first spot.

A victory in this game would be invaluable for any team, and both teams know that. Jon Scheyer is momentarily stepping out of the ACC, where Duke is the leader, and now will look to battle with the best of the NCAA, and for that, they need to be prepared.

“We will be ready. We’ll grow and learn, and then we will get back to ACC play,” said Scheyer.

Yes, the ACC can wait now for the time being. For now, Duke has a target in hand: Michigan. And there’s no way Scheyer is going to overlook that