Scottie Scheffler, as always, has a chance this week to join exclusive lists. With a successful title defense at Royal Birkdale, he will become only the third man since 2000 to do so, alongside Padraig Harrington (2007-08) and Tiger Woods (2005-06). But can he do that?

During the pre-championship conference this week, he also said, “Overall, I feel like I know what my why [indicating previous year’s comments] is, why I’m out here playing, and I’m excited to try and defend my title this week.” There are multiple factors to discuss in this particular comment.

At The Open, though he has publicly lamented a lack of experience on links courses, Scheffler hasn’t finished worse than T25 in his last five starts. And before he missed the cut at the Genesis Scottish Open, he had made the cut for 78 consecutive weeks. He also hasn’t missed back-to-back cuts since 2021, when he was ranked 83rd in the world.

Scheffler has also finished 2nd, T14, and T4 in the first three majors of the year, respectively. And he also leads the PGA Tour in SG: total, scoring average, and birdie average. But here’s the thing.

He hasn’t won since the American Express, which was back in January on his first start on the PGA Tour. Compare that to 2025, when he came to Royal Portrush with three wins under his belt and a T8 at the Genesis Scottish Open. But this time, he did not perform promisingly (missed the cut) in Scotland last week, not to mention he also lost almost two strokes on approach and hit only 11 out of 26 fairways. For two straight years, he led the Tour in Round 1 scoring average. Now, he has fallen off, ranking 34th. It is not always possible to recover after a bad Thursday. And Scheffler was handed that reality check more than once this year.

At the Cadillac Championship, Scheffler opened with a 71. Despite carding in the 60s in the next three rounds, he could only manage a runner-up finish. At U.S. Open, he opened with a 72 and again finished at T4. Is this a fair warning?

Unlikely, but one thought to keep in mind is that this is Scheffler’s first time playing Royal Birkdale. And really, that could make all the difference. Scheffler, who played the 18 holes during Sunday’s practice round, said: “On each hole, there’s a good bit of strategy; there’s a decent amount of thinking.” Royal Birkdale underwent extensive renovation in 2024, with significant changes obvious on the 5th, 7th, 14th, 15th, and 16th.

Not to mention, Royal Birkdale’s fairways are narrow strips of short grass that tighten right around the distance most players reach with their driver. It doesn’t have overly undulating fairways, as they are protected by mounds. “The ball’s just going to run for forever pretty much,” he said.

If Scottie plays aggressively, then he can shave yards off plenty of these holes, but doing so consistently is easier said than done. This is a course that has long rewarded the straight hitter, so anyone who can marry distance with accuracy will find themselves at a great advantage.

Essentially, the course demands good driving accuracy and approach play, and Scheffler ranks 23rd and 13th on the Tour in those categories, respectively. He also ranks 14th in SG: Putting on the Tour and needed 1.8 putts per hole in R2 last week. And Scheffler’s form has dipped, ever so slightly. Last year, as per Data Golf, Scheffler’s true strokes gained were +3.28. This year, it’s +2.84. That little drop has made the difference between six titles last year and only one this year.

Plus, the course is going to play extremely firm and fast because of lack of rain in recent weeks. There’s also likely to be no rain during these four days. The green complexes are equally devious, ringed with short-grass run-offs that punish any errant approach.

Essentially, Scheffler is hard to pin down. That’s why we asked our readers to share their thoughts.

Essentially Golf readers are divided

The readers of our newsletter, Essentially Golf, are not so sure about Scottie Scheffler‘s chances this week. When we asked, “Do You Think Scottie Scheffler Will Win His Season’s Only Major at The Open?” an overwhelming majority (72.77%) of readers said he won’t.

One of the standout comments was from a reader who wrote, “I was actually surprised he won it last year—it feels like links golf is not his style.” Another one wrote, “Good chance he won’t make the weekend.” Well.

Scheffler himself has commented on the difficulty of playing links, but last year, he won by four shots. Was it all luck? Impossible. But Data Golf also gives him a win probability of 9%, the lowest in four years. And none of us expected him to miss the cut last week.

“His irons have not been dialed in like the last 2 years, especially the approach. Don’t know what he’s missing but if he finds it this weekend he would be the favorite, and of course if he can sink putts inside 8 feet,” said another reader.

Opined another fan: “I don’t think just because the player ranked as the #1 golfer in the world is playing in a tournament, that they are the automatic pick to win the tournament. Current form should be a factor.”

We can get behind this one. A year ago, he stood head and shoulders above everyone with his iron play. Even though his short game and putting have improved, the decline in his iron game has held him back.

Expecting Scheffler to go from missing a cut the previous week to winning a major the following week would be a lot to ask for. Whether he wins or not, it won’t change him as a person. Sure, Scheffler will feel frustrated and might even throw his clubs or balls into the water, but the week won’t define the kind of player he is. Or, at least that’s what Scheffler said for the second consecutive year at The Open.

But then again, he could just win it because, well, he is Scottie Scheffler.