The Oval Wall Shane van Gisbergen Can’t Ignore — Why His Playoff Ceiling Is Already in Sight

Shane van Gisbergen has done the impossible. Once, the Kiwi racer was a relatively unknown entity, but then he managed to secure a win in his very first Cup Series race at the Chicago Street course. From that point on, the Trackhouse Racing star has only gone from strength to strength, securing as many as four wins in his rookie campaign at the highest level. But NASCAR isn’t solely about the road courses, and with the 2025  playoffs officially underway, his limitations on oval tracks may prove to be a stumbling block.

The real test begins during the business end of the season. And, it looks like the old-school NASCAR fans know how it is.

One Lucky Dog on Track subscriber has put it perfectly, saying, “He is only a rookie, he’s done well to get to where he is. If he doesn’t progress through the 16, he’s had a good year anyway.”

Now, considering the circumstances, the 36-year-old making it to the playoffs is in itself an achievement, a feat that two-time Cup Series winner Kyle Busch hasn’t been able to achieve. But making a deep playoff run is a different challenge entirely, one that will test Shane van Gisbergen’s versatility to the limit.

As things stand, nine races separate Shane van Gisbergen from the Championship, but out of them, only one is a road course. The rest are intermediates, short tracks, and superspeedways, while the finale will be held at Phoenix Raceway. If history is anything to go by, the veteran has struggled on oval tracks in the last few years, which means his only ‘realistic’ chance of victory is at the Charlotte Roval on October 5th. But by then, it might be too late.

With only two races remaining before the Round of 16 ends, and looking at the oval lineup, SVG might not necessarily be in contention for the championship. However, one LDOT fan isn’t giving up hope just yet. “If he can get over vertigo from going around in circles, the seasoned NASCAR drivers better look out,” the fan went on to comment.

And, mind you, Van Gisbergen’s story isn’t unique in NASCAR. Over the years, the sport has seen plenty of ‘specialists’ who excelled at certain track types. While some built their reputation on superspeedways like Daytona or Talladega, others thrived on short tracks.

On that note, one fan also wrote, “There have always been specialists in all forms of NASCAR. Super speedway, short track, flat track, 1.5 miles. The difference is car prep and race strategy that matches the drivers talents. Trackhouse with their background in road racin,g just happens to have it right now.”

And let’s not forget that it has served both Trackhouse Racing and Shane van Gisbergen well, but their journey might end soon. Oval specialists have a higher chance of making a deep playoff run because the calendar features more tracks that play to their strength. That imbalance might affect just how far the Kiwi makes it in his rookie campaign, unless he drastically improves on other track types. But not everyone is convinced that the veteran racer even deserves to be in the mix.

While his four wins have automatically guaranteed a playoff berth, his performance on other tracks has critics questioning the format itself. A fan even wrote, “He’s a one-trick pony. To qualify for the playoffs, a driver needs to be in the top 20 in points.”

Now, that’s a harsh take. But it does highlight just how dependent SVG has been on road courses. SVG has failed to break into the top 10 on an oval track this year, highlighting just how limiting his weakness is. Another LDOT subscriber went on to make a bold claim about the Cup Series calendar, saying, “There should only be 2 or 3 road courses in the regular season and NONE in the playoffs.”

The question now is, can Shane van Gisbergen improve his performance at ovals and secure a result at World Wide Technology Raceway or Bristol Motor Speedway?

Well, at this point, even a single bad finish or a mistake can make or break a driver’s season. But his SVG’s fans aren’t ready to count him out just yet, with one Lucky Dog on Track subscriber writing, “I can promise you he’s gonna get better at the ovals!!!” However, that’ll be easier said than done, especially considering his lack of oval experience, the pressure of the playoffs, combined with the steep learning curve, might prove to be too much.

Right now, Shane van Gisbergen’s ceiling is clear. While he’ll go into the Bank of America Roval 400 as the undisputed favorite, every other race in the playoffs will be an uphill task. He’ll be going head-to-head against seasoned oval track racers, and progressing beyond the Round of 16 will be a miracle in itself.

The Kiwi has already proven he belongs at the highest level, but making a deep playoff run in his rookie campaign might be a step too far. But irrespective of the outcome, this season will be remembered for his dominance on road courses.