Fifty-seven kilometers northwest of downtown Toronto sits TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley’s North course. This 7,389-yard layout has already demonstrated its ability to challenge elite professionals. When the course hosted the Fortinet Cup Championship last September, scores averaged 72.137 for the week, with only 15 birdies recorded on the par-4 13th hole out of 353 attempts. Now Rory McIlroy and the field must tackle this renovated layout. The course features six par-4s of at least 481 yards. Additionally, the rough could reach six inches deep. Therefore, ball-strikers will have a clear advantage when play begins Thursday.

1. Rory McIlroy

Rory McIlroy dominated this tournament twice before and will be back to increase his season’s victory count to 4. He captured victories at this event in 2019 and 2022. Furthermore, he never missed a cut in his four appearances here. His finishes read like perfection: 1st, 1st, T9, and T4. The Northern Irishman’s affinity for Canadian golf runs deep. His comfortable demeanor at this tournament translates into exceptional performance when it matters most.

This season has been career-defining for McIlroy. He completed the career Grand Slam at Augusta. Additionally, he leads the tour in earnings with $13,978,340. His driving distance ranks third at 319.3 yards. Moreover, he’s third in putts per hole at 1.69. Despite a disappointing T47 at the PGA Championship, his track record here makes him the clear favorite. Taking last week off provides valuable rest before tackling this demanding layout.

2. Shane Lowry

Shane Lowry has been knocking on victory’s door all season. He ranks second on Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. This skill set perfectly aligns with TPC Toronto’s requirements. Additionally, he’s posted two runner-up finishes among four top-10s this year. The Irishman’s patience and persistence suggest that his breakthrough moment is approaching rapidly. His methodical approach to challenging courses gives him a significant advantage over flashier competitors.

His ball-striking prowess separates him from the field. The Irishman consistently positions himself for Sunday charges. Furthermore, his 2019 Open Championship experience proves his mental toughness. His FedEx Cup ranking of 12th reflects the steady accumulation of quality finishes. Consequently, he appears primed for a breakthrough victory. Lowry’s ability to grind through challenging conditions makes him perfectly suited for TPC Toronto’s demands.

3. Taylor Pendrith RBC Canadian Open

Taylor Pendrith represents Canada’s best hope for home glory. He ranks second on Tour in ball-striking statistics. Moreover, he finished fifth in fairways hit and sixth in greens in regulation. His recent T5 at the PGA Championship marked his career-best major result. The 33-year-old Canadian has transformed his game through meticulous preparation and course management. His length, combined with improved accuracy, creates a dangerous combination on demanding layouts.

Four top-10 finishes highlight his strong 2025 campaign. These include impressive showings at Farmers (T7), Pebble Beach (T9), and Houston (T5). Furthermore, his accuracy and precision approach suits TPC Toronto perfectly. Home-country support combined with his current form creates a perfect storm for success. Pendrith’s mental toughness has grown significantly throughout his career. His ability to handle pressure situations positions him well for potential breakthrough success.

4. Corey Conners

Corey Conners stands as the most obvious Canadian contender. He currently ranks ninth in the FedEx Cup standings. Additionally, he’s posted five top-10s among 10 top-25 finishes. His T8 at The Masters demonstrated his major championship ability. The Ontario native understands the significance of Canada’s national championship. His consistent ball-striking provides the foundation necessary for sustained excellence on challenging courses.

His ball-striking credentials from tee to green are elite. Recent statistics show +0.398 Strokes Gained off-the-tee. Moreover, he has gained +0.170 in his last five events. Last year, he finished sixth and won the Rivermead Cup as low Canadian. Therefore, he enters with both form and motivation perfectly aligned. Conners’ technical precision and course management skills translate well to unfamiliar venues. His experience navigating pressure-packed situations gives him confidence heading into this week.

5. Ludvig Åberg

Ludvig Åberg has battled inconsistency this season. Illness and execution failures spoiled his early momentum. However, his recent bogey-free 66 at Muirfield Village suggests renewed confidence. Subsequently, his T16 finish at Memorial shows positive trending. The Swedish sensation possesses rare combination of power and finesse. His youth and fearlessness often yield spectacular results when confidence levels are at their peak.

He already captured the Genesis Invitational this year. His driving distance ranks fourth on tour at 316.7 yards. Furthermore, this length provides a significant advantage on TPC Toronto’s demanding par-4s. When his short game clicks, few players match his power-precision combination. Consequently, reduced expectations might actually work in his favor. Åberg’s ability to bounce back from disappointment demonstrates remarkable mental resilience. His talent ceiling remains among the highest in professional golf today.

The 2025 RBC Canadian Open promises compelling storylines with two legitimate Canadian contenders creating potential for emotional scenes. TPC Toronto’s venue change levels the playing field, while its demanding setup mirrors those of major championships. With favorable weather expected and home-country pride at stake, this tournament sets up perfectly for memorable golf that could produce Canada’s next national champion.