Bay Hill is about to remind the PGA Tour what over-par golf feels like. The Arnold Palmer Invitational is back as the third Signature Event of 2026. It will have 72 of the best players in the world, a tough cut rule, and a course that has been above par for 9 consecutive years. Bay Hill requires control from tee to green because there is a $4 million winner’s check, 700 FedExCup points, and a three-year exemption on the line. These are the five players who are best suited for that test.

1. Scottie Scheffler (+333)

Scheffler is the clear betting favorite at +333 and the top-ranked player in the power rankings. He has already won two (2022 & 2024) Arnold Palmer Invitational titles and is still statistically ahead of the rest of the field in 2026 thanks to his incredible ball-striking.

Scheffler has the most Strokes Gained Total on the PGA Tour with 2.398 after 14 measured rounds. He is second in Off the Tee with a score of 0.863 and 18th in Putting with a score of 0.742. He is seventh in Tee-to-Green with a score of 1.656, which shows that he has complete control from long range.

And World No. 1 has results to prove it. He won the American Express, came in third at the WM Phoenix Open, fourth at Pebble Beach, and twelfth at Riviera. Scheffler’s profile is perfect for a course where patience and accuracy are more important than distance.

2. Rory McIlroy (+900)

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With +900 odds, Rory McIlroy is in second place in the power rankings. He won the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2018 and has extensive experience at Bay Hill. This season, he is trending sharply in the right direction.

McIlroy is second in Strokes Gained Total with a score of 2.396. He is first in Approach with a score of 1.464 and first in Tee-to-Green with a score of 2.254. His Off-the-Tee score is 0.396, which puts him in 36th place, and his Putting score is 0.142, which puts him in 77th place.

He came in second at The Genesis Invitational and fourteenth at Pebble Beach. If the putter works on Bay Hill’s slick Bermuda grass greens, his great iron play and overall tee-to-green dominance make him a strong candidate to win this title again.

3. Collin Morikawa (+2200)

Morikawa comes in third in the power rankings with odds of +2200. He hasn’t won the Arnold Palmer Invitational yet, but he finished second here last year. He has already won a statement victory in his 2026 campaign.

He won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am with a score of 22-under, which gave him 700 FedExCup points. In terms of Strokes Gained Total, he is 19th with a score of 1.263. His Approach play is still very good, at 1.081, which puts him sixth. His Tee-to-Green play is also very good, at 1.610, which puts him eighth.

The worry is putting. Morikawa is 131st in Strokes Gained Putting with a score of -0.347. Around the Green is also in 94th place. At Bay Hill, where being close and scrambling are important, how well he plays his short game will determine whether he competes or chases.

4. Tommy Fleetwood (+1800)

Fleetwood is the fourth-best player in the power rankings, coming in at +1800. He hasn’t won the Arnold Palmer Invitational yet, but he has done well here in the past. Last season, he finished at T-11, and his current stats show that he is very close to making it big.

With a score of 2.145 in Strokes Gained Total, he is fifth. With a score of 1.755 in Tee-to-Green, he is fourth. He is currently the best on the PGA TOUR at 1.107 Around the Green, which is important because the rough and shaved runoffs at Bay Hill are very hard.

Fleetwood is 66th in Approach with a score of 0.212 and 46th in Putting with a score of 0.391. He came in T4 at Pebble Beach and T7 at Riviera. If he gets a little better at hitting with his irons, he has a good chance of winning because he is so good at everything else.

5. Shane Lowry (+4000)

Shane Lowry is fifth in the power rankings and has +4000 odds to win. He hasn’t won at Bay Hill yet, and last season he finished seventh.

As per PGA Tour stats, Lowry is seventh in Strokes Gained Total with a score of 1.762 over 12 rounds. His Putting is 19th with a score of 0.733, and his Approach play is 12th with a score of 0.848. Tee-to-Green is 21st at 1.029, indicating the overall balance is steady.

Off the Tee is the weakest at 55th, and Around the Green is the weakest at 105th. He has still finished T8 at Pebble Beach and T2 at the Cognizant Classic. Lowry’s controlled style keeps him in the mix on a course that punishes mistakes.

This week (March 5 to 8) is going to be an exciting one. Scheffler is in the lead, but the others aren’t much behind him. Who do you think will outplay the 2x winner of the Arnold Palmer Invitational?