Four years ago, Patrick Cantlay turned Caves Valley Golf Club into his personal playground. The American fired a staggering 27-under par to claim the BMW Championship in a playoff thriller against Bryson DeChambeau. Moreover, that incredible scoring exhibition showcased what’s possible when elite players attack this Maryland venue. However, don’t expect similar fireworks this week.

The course has undergone significant changes since Cantlay’s record-breaking performance. Tournament officials have stretched the layout to 7,601 yards and converted it from par-72 to par-70. Furthermore, these modifications create a completely different test that demands precision over pure scoring. Consequently, the second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs promises to deliver high-stakes drama on a course that tests every aspect of a player’s game. With only the top 50 players advancing from last week’s St. Jude Championship, every shot carries enormous weight.

Scottie Scheffler – BMW Championship dominant favorite

Scottie Scheffler enters as the overwhelming betting favorite despite some lingering concerns about course fit. The world No. 1 has dominated 2025 with four victories, including two majors, while maintaining an incredible 88.2% top-10 finish rate across 17 starts. Additionally, he leads the FedEx Cup standings by over 2,000 points and hasn’t missed a single cut all season.

Nevertheless, Caves Valley presents unique challenges for the Dallas native. Scheffler managed only a T22 finish when the BMW Championship last visited this venue in 2021. Similarly, his recent performance at St. Jude revealed unexpected weaknesses in his short game. Plus, caddie Ted Scott’s absence during the final round raised questions about their partnership’s continuity.

Rory McIlroy – BMW Championship, fresh legs opportunity

Rory McIlroy returns as the most intriguing alternative to Scheffler’s dominance. The Northern Irishman strategically skipped the FedEx St. Jude Championship, telling The Telegraph, “I finished basically dead last there this year and only moved down one spot in the play-off standings.” Consequently, this calculated rest period could prove decisive at Caves Valley.

Furthermore, McIlroy brings an impressive course history to Maryland. He finished fourth when the BMW Championship last visited Caves Valley in 2021, demonstrating his comfort on this challenging layout. Meanwhile, his 2025 season includes three victories, highlighted by completing the career grand slam at Augusta National. Therefore, the +700 odds represent excellent value for a player who combines elite form with strategic freshness.

Tommy Fleetwood – BMW Championship breakthrough beckoning

Tommy Fleetwood arrives carrying the weight of expectation and heartbreak. The Englishman has made 162 PGA Tour starts without claiming victory, yet his consistency continues to impress. Moreover, he led the FedEx St. Jude Championship entering the final round before stumbling to a T3 finish.

“I just think I would way rather be there and fail than not be there at all,” Fleetwood reflected after his latest near-miss. “So either way, like, it’s a good thing. Yeah, it hurts when it doesn’t happen for you.” Despite the disappointment, his ball-striking statistics rank among the Tour’s elite this season. Additionally, his six top-10 finishes in 2025 prove his readiness for breakthrough success.

Xander Schauffele – BMW Championship redemption story

Xander Schauffele faces the most pressure among the top betting favorites. The 2024 Open champion currently sits 42nd in the FedEx Cup standings, dangerously close to missing the Tour Championship for the first time since 2017. Furthermore, his T22 finish at St. Jude highlighted ongoing struggles throughout a disappointing 2025 campaign.

However, history suggests Schauffele thrives under pressure at the BMW Championships. He has recorded three consecutive T8 or better finishes at this event while posting exceptional numbers at East Lake throughout his career. Consequently, this week represents his final opportunity to salvage a challenging season. Therefore, the redemption narrative makes him an attractive betting proposition.

Ludvig Åberg – BMW Championship youth and power

Ludvig Åberg brings the perfect combination of length and precision to Caves Valley’s demanding layout. The Swedish sensation captured the Genesis Invitational earlier this year, earning $4 million while showcasing his elite driving distance. Additionally, his recent T9 finish at FedEx St. Jude Championship demonstrated steady form heading into this crucial week.

Moreover, Åberg’s youth provides advantages in golf’s increasingly athletic landscape. His major championship experience, including a T7 finish at this year’s Masters, proves his ability to handle pressure situations. Meanwhile, the rising star represents excellent value among the top betting favorites for this week’s critical playoff event.

The stage is set for compelling drama at Caves Valley. Which betting favorite offers the best value for your BMW Championship strategy?