The 2026 U.S. Open is one week away, and Scottie Scheffler heads to Shinnecock Hills carrying a question mark that would have seemed absurd at the start of the season. A golf analyst who has watched Scheffler closely all year is no longer offering the kind of blanket confidence he once did.

“His game is off, and so he has provided an opportunity to the best players in the world. He’s still the man to beat, but he is no longer the man that can’t be beaten,” Brandel Chamblee delivered a pointed two-sentence verdict on the World No. 1’s Grand Slam bid.

It is a notable shift in tone from the Golf Channel analyst who had previously stated Scheffler would “very likely” complete the career Grand Slam and even predicted the US Open winning score would simply be “whatever Scottie Scheffler shoots.”

Chamblee’s sharp opinions were perhaps shaped by the Memorial Tournament last week. Scheffler ranked 59th out of 72 players in strokes gained, meaning he lost more than two shots to the field. The distance control that made him so dominant at Muirfield Village in previous years was almost absent. He also shanked a green-side bunker shot on the par-5 hole and made three consecutive bogeys around the turn. He put himself right on the cut line during his second round but made the weekend and eventually finished T12 at four under.

His previous performances, for example, the PGA Championship three weeks ago, told a similar story. Scheffler started the week strongly on the greens and ranked sixth in Strokes Gained: Putting in round one, but soon everything collapsed on day two. He bogeyed three of his first four holes in round two and missed the opening six fairways on the back nine. In fact, back-to-back 71s in the middle rounds left him five shots off the pace heading into Sunday. He closed out the championship by missing a four-foot birdie putt, ultimately finishing tied for 14th at 2-under for the week.

“I don’t know, I just didn’t make putts when I needed to,” he said afterwards.

That said, sure, Scottie Scheffler has had a rough week, but it does not deflect his status as a favorite. He is heading to Shinnecock with only one major missing from his career Grand Slam collection. If he wins, he would become only the seventh player in history to complete the career Grand Slam.

That said, writing Scheffler off goes entirely against recent evidence. At Pebble Beach in February, he began the final round eight shots behind 54-hole leader Akshay Bhatia, but like his style to flip things at the end, he proceeded to card a 9-under 63, including a birdie-eagle-birdie start. He took the clubhouse lead before eventually finishing tied for fourth.

At Memorial last week, after producing what he called some of the worst ball striking in years, he refused to fold.

“That’s maybe some of the worst I’ve hit in a couple of years out there, and I still managed to shoot even par around a golf course that requires you to strike the ball really well. This tournament was one that definitely could have gotten away from me, but right now I’m only nine shots back and still have a chance going into the week,” he said.

And that has precisely been Scheffler’s attitude all along. So it wouldn’t be a surprise if he flipped things at Shinnecock Hills as well.

Rory McIlroy could steal the win at the U.S. Open

If Scheffler fails to rebound from his recent struggles, the question becomes, who capitalizes on it? Rory McIlroy arrives at Shinnecock after winning two straight Masters titles in 2025 and 2026.

McIlroy’s US Open record since 2011 is one caveat. McIlroy missed the cut the last time the championship was held at Shinnecock Hills in 2018. This year, the concerns are around the firm, fast, and windy conditions that could expose inconsistency off the tee. Additionally, he also faces the driver issue that cost him the PGA Championship last month. The width of the fairway at Shinnecock this year may offer some relief. The USGA has set the fairways at an average of 48 yards in 2026. It is an unusually expansive setup, even by recent U.S. Open standards.

On top of that, in his last seven US Open appearances, McIlroy recorded six top-nine finishes. This year, the consistency could pay off as a win. He has already completed the career Grand Slam in 2025, so there is no historical monkey on his back at this venue.

If Scheffler’s irons stay cold and his putter continues to waver, McIlroy’s position as the most likely beneficiary is strengthened. Whether the championship produces a new winner remains to be seen.