Jon Rahm’s decision to leave the PGA Tour for LIV Golf in December 2023 was framed, at the time, as the boldest business call. He was reported to have a $300 million contract, which made the two-time major champion one of the biggest headlines in the league’s short history. Nearly three years later, the same deal is the reason his name is back in headlines, and not because the money finally landed in his account. It’s because the growing chunk of it may never show up at all.

Speaking at a recent episode of The Shotgun Start, host Brendan Porath, from Fried Egg Golf, discussed LIV’s latest advances. He also didn’t hold back what it meant for Rahm specifically.

“I’ve seen a lot of people say Jon Rahm’s decision to join LIV is one of the worst moves in sports history, or one of the most disastrous outcomes.”

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Andy Johnson agreed and said, “What a mistake from Rahm.”

The harsh comment from the analyst traces back to a report released by Ryan French for Monday Q Info. After speaking to multiple people, French pegged the combined amount still owed by the league to golfers at more than $250 million. Jon Rahm, for one, accounts for the largest single share of that, reportedly as much as $150 million. Moreover, French’s sourcing suggests that there’s little chance he sees all of it if the league ends up filing for bankruptcy.

That image comes as a sharp contrast to LIV’s recent update. LIV CEO Scot O’Neil announced that the league has locked in a new lead investor to replace the Public Investment Fund. Players are now set to become equity holders in the reshaped “LIV 2.0.”

More or less, LIV League’s dilapidated attempt to seek an investor has finally borne fruit. For some, it’s a moment of celebration and even a boon for the league. But for others, it brings speculation given how much debt the league is in. And Scott O’Neil has not addressed that either.

For most players who signed early, large contracts got them half the money upfront, with most of it to be paid in quarterly installments. The Spaniard’s contract, however, worked differently.

According to reports from Flushing It, his payout was heavily backloaded. In simpler terms, with a smaller signing bonus and a much larger balance owed towards the back end of the term. It was reportedly a structure tied to the ongoing framework agreement of the talks between the Tour, the DP World Tour, and the Saudi PIF at the time he signed. That framework deal has still not closed nearly three years later.

Naturally, Andy Johnson and Brendan Porath call it a mistake, as it’s a steep comedown from the expectations attached to the signing. Rahm had joined as the reigning Masters champion and former world number one and came off a four-win PGA Tour season. Moreover, he has been LIV’s most consistent performer since 2024. He collected back-to-back individual championships and an individual title at Hong Kong this year and 16 trophies between individual and team wins. But financially, and now perhaps reputationally, the picture is murkier.

As Brendan put it, closing the discussion, “It doesn’t seem he’ll receive the full amount. I have no doubt his bank account is still in much better shape than it was before he put on the Leatherman jacket. But in terms of public perception and his golf career, I don’t think it’s been a positive development for Jon Rahm.”

Only two events are left, and LIV’s own staff are getting cut loose too.

Jon Rahm’s contract isn’t the only sign of how fragile things have gotten inside LIV Golf. Reports have highlighted that LIV Michigan remains one of the two remaining events on the calendar, and despite it just being weeks away, nothing is actually happening behind the scenes to prepare for it. Furthermore, reports have highlighted that the vendors remain unpaid and any setup for the tournament has not begun. Moreover, it isn’t just outside vendors who are feeling the squeeze.

According to Flushing It, LIV sources say emails went out on Monday, informing a large number of staff and contractors that their jobs will be terminated in early September with 30 days’ notice. According to the WARN Act, the U.S. law requires employers to give 60 days’ notice ahead of any mass layoffs. And LIV had already given a warning meeting roughly 30 days before Monday’s formal notice.

All in all, whether the new investor announced this week can change the trouble LIV Golf is in for now remains an open question.