Five past winners and three major champions were among those affected by Bay Hill’s strict cut rule for the top 50 and ties in a 72-player Signature Event. Bay Hill does not allow for mistakes. The course is long, the rough is thick, and the greens are difficult.

One player, returning from surgery, shot +14. Another missed the cut by one stroke, just days after losing a Sunday lead. A recent winner who set a tournament record earlier this year finished with a back-nine 41 on Friday, including two shots into the water. One steady player failed to make any birdies in the second round. Another, who is ranked 170th in Strokes Gained: Putting, missed four putts from inside six feet on Friday. Each of the five players had a different weakness this week, and Bay Hill brought them all to light.

1. Justin Thomas: the rust of a 158-day layoff

Justin Thomas came back to the PGA Tour at Bay Hill after 158 days away, following back surgery last November. The rust showed immediately. He shot 79-79 for +14, his worst two-round score in more than three years. Two double bogeys and a triple bogey summed up his week. Thomas was 71st out of 72 in Strokes Gained: Putting, losing 4.5 strokes on the greens. His iron play, usually a strength, fell to 68th in the field.

There was one positive: Thomas finished fourth in SG: Around-the-Green, proof that his short game is still sharp even if the rest is not. He had made the cut in all four of his previous starts at Bay Hill, including a T12 last year. This missed cut stands out as an exception in his record here.

2. Shane Lowry: the Cognizant hangover

Shane Lowry did not have enough time to recover from what happened at PGA National. He came into Bay Hill ranked 12th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach, with strong iron play from earlier events. But none of that carried over. He shot 74-73 for +3 and missed the cut by one, undone by three bogeys on the back nine Friday that turned a possible weekend into an early exit.

The problem is not just one poor result. Lowry also collapsed late at the Cognizant Classic, his second time losing a tournament from a strong position this year after a similar finish at the Dubai Invitational in January. At Bay Hill, he lost strokes in Strokes Gained: Approach for the first time all season. For a player who relies on his irons, the loss is a clear warning sign.

3. Justin Rose: from Torrey Pines peak to Bay Hill valley

Justin Rose is the only player in this list with a win in 2026, setting a tournament record at Torrey Pines in January. Since then, his form has dropped off. He started Bay Hill with a solid 70, but a back-nine 41 on Friday, including water on 11 and 18, pushed him to +4 and out of the tournament.

That makes two missed cuts in three starts since his win at the Farmers, with the Genesis ending the same way. Rose is 92nd in Driving Accuracy and 153rd in SG: Around-the-Green, both categories that Bay Hill exposes. The pattern is clear. His 2026 season is now defined by boom or bust.

4. Ben Griffin: When precision meets length

Ben Griffin came into 2026 as a steady performer, with top-30 finishes at the Sony Open, American Express, and WM Phoenix Open after winning the 2025 WWT Championship. He managed an even-par 72 on Thursday, but Friday showed the gap between his game and what this course demands. In Round 2, Griffin failed to make a single birdie, ultimately finishing at a score of +3.

The numbers tell the story. Griffin is 114th in Driving Distance at 295.6 yards, which meant five more long-iron approaches over 200 yards into par-4s compared to the field. Bay Hill, at 7,466 yards with thick rough, requires power off the tee. Griffin’s game is built on precision, not length, and it showed.

5. JJ Spaun: the putting ceiling

JJ Spaun’s ball-striking was solid. He finished top 20 in tee-to-green and was 19th in SG: Around-the-Green. But his putting let him down. He shot 73-74 for +3 and missed the cut by one, with four missed putts inside six feet in the second round costing him.

Spaun is 170th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting, losing more than a stroke per round. He averaged over 30 putts per round at Bay Hill, which makes making the cut almost impossible, no matter how well he hits it. His early 2026 results show the same trend: ball-striking gives him a chance, but the putter keeps him out.

Bay Hill doesn’t announce its verdicts. It just posts the scores and lets the math speak for itself.