The season’s final stop on the DP World Tour has arrived. One player is within reach of history, while another is chasing a dream that requires near perfection. Rory McIlroy is right at the top of the Race to Dubai rankings. All he needs to do is finish T2 or above to register a 7th Race to Dubai title in his name. With this, he will surpass Seve Ballesteros and get one step closer to Colin Montgomerie’s record of 8 titles. However, there’s one golfer who can make it tough for McIlroy, and that’s Marco Penge. With three titles this season, the Englishman has had a dream comeback after his suspension from the DP World Tour.

Marco Penge is 767.02 points behind the 5x major winner. Although it is a tough task, there are many scenarios in which Marco Penge can get a lead. Matt Chivers from National Club Golfer shared an X post listing all possible scenarios where Penge can register his first Race to Dubai title. “For Marco Penge to win the Race to Dubai, he’d need one of these: Win and McIlroy below outright 2nd, outright 2nd and McIlroy worse than outright 4th, tied 2nd with 1 other, McIlroy tied 8th or worse with 2 others, tied 2nd or worse with 2 others and McIlroy worse than 24th place,” he wrote in the post.

The gap between the two was only 441 points before the 2025 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, as Penge posed a significant challenge with his triumphant return to the DP World Tour. However, the first Play-Off event at Yas Links changed things a little. Aaron Rai won against Tommy Fleetwood in the sudden-death playoff, and Rory McIlroy finished at T3 with Nicolai Hojgaard. Penge had an impressive final round with 9 under par, but could only manage a T9 finish with Robert MacIntyre and Angel Ayora.

After this result, McIlroy moved to 4,640.06 points. Marco Penge, on the other hand, has 3,873.04 points in his name. Thus, the gap increased from 441 to 767 points. But the DP World Tour Championship has 12,000 Race to Dubai points up for grabs. This is the most that any tournament on the tour offers. Even the majors offer only 10,000 points. If Penge wins it, he will get 2,000 points. And if McIlroy finishes below outright 2nd, he will get only 752 points, which will take Penge to the top position.

In the second scenario, Penge gets 1,335 points with an outright 2nd finish. If McIlroy finishes below outright 4th, he will get up to 509 points. This means that the gap will be over 800 points. Similarly, in the last two scenarios as well, the points gap between the two will be over 767.02 points for Marco Penge to win.

This tough competition is taking a mental toll on both golfers. “Yeah, my goal is to try, obviously, my goal once I didn’t qualify for the Ryder Cup. I think I played the Irish Open, and I thought, Now my goal is to catch Rory. That goal is kind of over in a way, but now that I’ve won in Spain and got myself back in the mix, I’m trying to win this week or next week or just play as good as I can and see where that ends up,” Penge said about chasing Rory McIlroy. Although it is a tough challenge, Penge is up for it. However, he aims to focus on playing the best golf he can at the last event on the schedule.

The same goes for McIlroy, too, as he is not taking the competition from Penge lightly. “This week I’ve got one eye on trying to win the tournament, but then another eye on making sure I keep Marco at bay. He’s had an amazing year, winning three times. Yeah, he’s an amazing talent,” McIlroy said. Both players faced each other for the first time at the 2025 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship.

The Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship has always posed a challenge for McIlroy. He has multiple runner-up and third-place finishes, but never got his hands on the Falcon trophy. But that’s not the case with the DP World Tour Championship. The career Grand Slam winner has won it on three occasions: in 2012, in 2015, and in 2024. This makes things a little more difficult for Marco Penge.

Although challenged, Marco Penge is riding high after his amazing performance at the DP World Tour Championship. He has three DP World Tour titles in his name, and all of them came this year. This shows his performance throughout the season and why he has a real chance of winning his maiden Race to Dubai title.

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Marco Penge’s dream 2025 season

Penge claimed his first DP World Tour title at the Hainan Classic in April 2025. He fired a final round of five under par to win by three strokes. This took his OWGR standings from 344th to 194th. Then he won at the Danish Golf Championship in August 2025. He capitalized on Rasmus Højgaard’s collapse in the final round. Despite starting the day a stroke behind, Penge made a key birdie on the 71st hole to clinch the title by one stroke.

Although he missed getting into the 2025 Ryder Cup after these two wins, his third win cemented his position in the top tier of the Race to Dubai standings. Penge’s third title win on the DP World Tour came in October 2025 at the Spanish Open. Leading by four shots at the start of the final day, Penge endured a tough round, including a bogey early and equipment damage. His pitching wedge had hit a tree. Despite this, he held on against strong pressure from Dan Brown, who forced a playoff. Penge prevailed on the first playoff hole with a clutch birdie putt.

The final victory earned him entries to the 2026 Masters and Open Championship. He also secured dual DP World Tour and PGA Tour status for the upcoming season. Thus, although it would be difficult, Marco Penge is in the right form and mentality to win the European Order of Merit title.