Imagine achieving your career Grand Slam after working relentlessly for over a decade and still being ranked behind a golfer who has had no major wins. Definitely frustrating, to say the least. As the 2025 U.S. Open approaches, the golf world is buzzing with predictions about who will claim the title, sparking discussion among the fans and experts alike. And one such analysis has predicted Scottie Scheffler winning, which is not a surprise, but also shockingly placing Rory McIlroy behind a LIV golf player who has only won 2 PGA Tour titles in his entire career.

McIlroy, who started his 2025 season with 2 wins in four starts, was finally able to win the Masters. “Everyone needs to have goals and dreams, and I’ve been able to do something that I dreamed of for a long time,” the world No. 2 stated, feeling “absolutely amazing” post his illustrious win, and suggested that he is far from finished and still has goals that he’d like to set for himself. Everyone thought that this year was going to be Rory’s. It had to be, right? Only it wasn’t.

A poor run at the PGA Championship derailed the entire momentum. On the first day of competition at Quail Hollow, his driver was declared non-conforming. This put McIlroy in a bad light. He refused to speak to the media and barely made the cut. His finish was forgettable, T47. Now, he is making his 16th appearance at the U.S. Open this week, and is entering after a missed cut at the RBC Canadian Open. Because of this poor run, it was predicted that McIlroy had only a 3% chance of winning the U.S. Open, placing him behind LIV Golf star Joaquin Niemann, who has 3.1% chances. This entire prediction was deemed to be an “egregious disrespect” to the 2025 Masters champion by a fan page, Rory Tracker. Nevertheless, the Chilean golfer is making quite some waves in the golf world these days.

Niemann turned pro in 2018 and has had only two wins on the PGA Tour, the last being at the 2022 Genesis Invitational. He decided to move to LIV Golf the same year. Currently ranked at 79th in the OWGR, he was given an exemption to play at the U.S. Open this week, following his stellar tied 8th finish at the PGA Championship earlier in May. This was his best finish at a major event, but his statistics on LIV Golf are much more impressive.

In the last 17 months, the Chilean has won six LIV Golf events, making him look like the best player even among the likes of Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm. With four individual LIV Golf wins this year, his earnings for 2025 are almost at $17 million, which is more than both Scheffler’s and McIlroy’s earnings. The Irishman has made $13.9 million since the start of the season. And Niemann’s current form on LIV Golf is drawing admiration and respect from fans, who came out in support of the predictions of him being placed above McIlroy.

Fans react to Joaquin Niemann having a better chance to win over Rory McIlroy

One fan came out in support of the predictions, stating that they were correct and not disrespectful to McIlroy, given that every major he’s won, his scores have always been pretty low, indicating the difficulty level of the course. “Not really. If there’s one thing Rory hasn’t done in his brilliant career, it’s win majors on courses playing wildly difficult. All his majors have come with the winning score being at least 11 under par. Oakmont will likely show its teeth more than any course he’s ever won at.”

McIlroy won his first major at the 2011 U.S. Open at Congressional Country Club with a score of 16-under, and his other wins at majors saw him shooting scores as low as 17-under (the 2014 Open). While the courses he’s won at before are pretty difficult, there’s no course like Oakmont, which is known for its brutality, given that the last time the U.S. Open was hosted here in 2016, the winning score was just 4-under par.

The last time McIlroy played at the 2016 U.S. Open at Oakmont, he missed the cut with rounds of 77 and 71, finishing 8 over par, when the cut went at 6 over par. “Interesting, I wonder how they came to that, considering last time he was at Oakmont, he missed the cut lol,” a fan sarcastically commented, implying that placing him 5th on the predictions was also too high of a probability given his last performance at Oakmont.

Another user commented that McIlroy is not exactly in form, since his last performance at the RBC Canadian Open was his worst this year, with rounds of 71 & 78, when he failed to make the cut by 10 shots. “Since the PGA Championship, Rory has played 2 rounds of golf and MC at the RBC. He’s not exactly “in form,” the comment read, also adding McIlroy’s tied 47th finish at the PGA Championship.

“He can’t win without his illegal driver,” another user added, pointing out McIlroy’s illegal driver woes this year when his driver was deemed non-conforming at the PGA Championship. McIlroy has also struggled with his driving since the controversy, after which he could barely find a fairway at Quail Hollow at the PGA Championship early in May.

While McIlroy has had three wins this season, including the Masters, his other performances haven’t resembled his victory at the Masters. One fan commented, “Reality hurts.” Niemann, on the other hand, has had four wins and jaw-dropping earnings for himself this season, which led the predictions to place him over McIlroy.

While Rory McIlroy’s legacy and talent are undeniable, Joaquin Niemann’s consistent form and adaptability have positioned him as a formidable contender in the upcoming U.S. Open. As the tournament unfolds, it will be intriguing to see how these rankings translate into performance on the course.