Currently ranked 264th in the world, Brooks Koepka is all set to play in the upcoming Farmers Insurance Open. For a five-time major champ and former world No. 1, his current rank captures the scale of the fall. But if he plays his card right, he might be able to break into the elite list. Well, that’s the news this week, as per OWGR projections for the fifth week.

As per Nosferatu on X, a single top-10 finish by Brooks Koepka can directly propel him into the top 50. If that happens, it will reopen many doors for the lined-up Signature events. For now, Koepka cannot get a sponsor exemption to play in Signature events and will have to earn his way. But if he falls short, like with a missed cut, he would be locked into a survival season.

Farmers Insurance is expected to carry around 57.5-61.5 OWGR points, making it one of the most valuable non-signature events. For Koepka, these points are decisive. He carries only a 13-event divisor, which is all from his pre-LIV PGA Tour starts, meaning that every new event will dilute his average before his points actually start rising. In practical terms, even if he ends up scoring a T30 finish, which would likely give him around two OWGR points, it would barely move the needle.

What makes the situation worse is Koepka’s past performance at the Farmers Insurance Open. In his four career starts at this event, he has made the cut only once, and it was back in 2015. He missed cuts in 2016, 2017, and most recently in 2022. Across all those four appearances, Koepka has never finished under par over 72 holes. At the same time, the structure of the tournament poses another challenge.

At the Farmers Insurance Open, R1 and R2 are split between the North and South courses. The former is a par-72 course, measures 7,258, and has been Koepka’s danger zone. All missed cuts at FIO were followed by early collapses during the opening rounds at this course. However, there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

In June 2021, Koepka had a T4 at the US Open on the South Course of Torrey Pines. He shot a 69-73-71-69 for a total of 282 (-2). Although there were bogeys that stalled his charge, the two birdies in his first four holes had helped him lock in a good place. Now, the US Open is a far more difficult and high-pressure tournament than the Farmers Insurance Open. If Koepka can break through such conditions, he can surely do so this time, too.

Still, the task would not be easy. Brooks Koepka last played on the PGA Tour on March 22, 2022, at the Valspar Championship, earning a T12 finish. It has been 4 years since he has competed in the Tour format. In fact, even his last few LIV performances don’t help his case much. Keeping all this in mind, the 35-year-old former US Open champion will have to be careful.

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What should Brooks Koepka do to earn his place in the top-50 at the Farmers Insurance Open?

In all honesty, not many would be expecting Brooks Koepka to give a standout performance in his first PGA Tour event back. All eyes will be on him for sure, which might only add to his pressure. The first step is to survive the cut, which falls between +3 and +5 at this course. That cut line usually removes 25-30% of the field.

But can he actually do it? The answer might offer little comfort. The most likely outcome will be a missed cut or a T21 -35 finish. Together, they carry a 55-65% probability. If he secures the latter, he might modestly move into the 80-150 range on the OWGR. On the other hand, a T10-20 finish has 15-20% chances, and anything less carries a rare probability of 8-12%.

If by chance, Koepka ends up securing a top-50 in the OWGR, he will be able to unlock access to the eight signature events. The signature events, being the most lucrative on the Tour, will help the former LIV player, as he has put a lot at stake by agreeing to pay the $85 million penalty.