Scottie Scheffler draws the most attention at TPC Southwind as World No. 1 and the FedExCup leader. However, golf analyst Justin Ray has pointed toward a player who could quietly become one of the biggest stories of the FedEx St. Jude Championship 2026. The course has a history of rewarding strong iron players, and recent form adds another intriguing layer to the equation, which makes Hideki Matsuyama a strong fit for the win.

That pick carries extra weight given what’s on the line this week. This is the opening event of the three-tournament FedExCup Playoffs, with a $20 million purse, a $3.6 million check for the winner, and 750 points on offer, the same as a major championship win. Nobody gets cut after 36 holes, but the 70-man field narrows to 50 once the week is done, so a poor showing here can end a season just as fast as missing the weekend would.

“Hideki Matsuyama is on fire. I think he’s had five consecutive top 15 finishes, and no player has made more birdies at TPC Southwind over the last six years than Hideki Matsuyama. That’s a guy I’m looking at,” Justin Ray said on a Golf Live Podcast by Trey Wingo Golf.

It’s not a random guess, though. Ray pointed out that the course rewards precise approach play and favors players who arrive with momentum, and Matsuyama fits both marks.

The Japanese golfer’s SG: Approach the Green for the season so far is 0.423. He ranked 28th on the PGA Tour for that stat. Similarly, his recent performances show how well he is playing. He finished tied for 14th at the Travelers Championship and The Open. Then he finished at T3 at the 3M Open before finishing T5 at the Rocket Classic. His most recent start before the FedEx St. Jude Championship came at the Wyndham Championship, where he finished tied for seventh.

Five top-15s in a row means more when you look at where they came from. One is The Open, and the other three were events that counted toward this year’s postseason picture, with fields to match. Matsuyama built this run against strong competition, not a soft patch of the schedule.

There are many examples to back this analysis. For instance, Matsuyama won here in 2024, while Dustin Johnson won in 2018. Daniel Berger won the event in 2016 and 2017. All of them rank among the best approach players of their eras.

The same pattern applies to recent form, too. Justin Rose, who won the event last year, was coming off a solo sixth at the Genesis Scottish Open and a T16 at The Open. Will Zalatoris, who won in 2022, was coming off a big season in which he contended in multiple major championships, including a playoff loss to Justin Thomas at the PGA Championship, before he defeated Sepp Straka to win the St. Jude Championship.

Based on that same factor, Justin Ray also picked Sam Burns to win the Memphis event. Sam Burns has had three top-five finishes in his last five starts, including a runner-up at the US Open and a solo third at The Open. While he has not played since The Open Championship in July, he still carries strong recent form into the week.

Scheffler’s approach play is also very solid. His SG: Approach the Green is 0.589, which is better than Hideki Matsuyama’s. In fact, the World No. 1 ranks 11th on the PGA Tour this season in that particular aspect. He has even had some strong form recently. He has had five runner-up finishes throughout the season, one of which came a couple of weeks earlier at the 3M Open.

But on the downside, he missed the cut for the first time in about four years a few weeks back. With rounds of 68 and 72, he managed an even par halfway through the Genesis Scottish Open, which was not enough. To add to that, all the near misses he has had this season would have frustrated him and dented his confidence.

That analysis held up in the opening round. Hideki Matsuyama started with a round of four-under 66, featuring three bogeys and seven birdies. He is tied for fifth at the end of the opening round. Scottie Scheffler, on the other hand, hit a bogey and three birdies in the opening round to score two-under 68 and finish tied for 14th on the leaderboard. Although a few golfers have yet to complete their rounds, which could change their leaderboard positions, Matsuyama is still ahead of the World No. 1.

However, he is Scottie Scheffler, and he can always turn the tables to win. In fact, he has admitted having a strong connection with the Memphis event.

Scottie Scheffler revealed his reaction to the St. Jude Championship losing its premier status

The PGA Tour has announced a two-tier system starting in 2028. Under this new system, the FedEx St. Jude Championship will lose its premier status. The sponsor and hosts have described the decision as frustrating.

When asked about the same, Scottie Scheffler said that he will be sad to see the event leave. That’s because he likes coming back to the venue, as he shares a strong connection with it.

Back in 2014, when the American golfer was still in high school, he received two sponsor invitations for PGA Tour events. One of them was the Byron Nelson, where he finished T22. The other was the FedEx St. Jude Classic. Although he missed the cut at the 2014 event, he learned a lot from the experience. Therefore, as soon as he earned the PGA Tour card in 2020, Memphis became a regular stop on his calendar.

His performance at the event has also improved in recent years. After missing the cut in 2022, he finished T31 in 2023. But he came back stronger with a solo fourth in 2024. He followed it with a tied for third last year.

That tension is what makes the rest of the week worth watching. Ray’s case for Matsuyama rests on measurable factors: his approach play and the way he’s trending into the week, both supported by the course’s history. Scheffler’s case is different, built on connection to the venue and a habit of closing when it matters. The next three rounds will show which one wins out.