Jon Rahm sat atop the world rankings in May 2023, fresh off his Masters triumph. But the PGA Championship at Oak Hill brought a shift in fortunes. Scottie Scheffler battled his way to a runner-up finish, earning just enough ranking points to overtake Rahm. May 21 saw the rankings reshuffled, with Scheffler ascending to the No. 1 spot. He has remained there ever since. But now, the winds of change are beginning to blow once again.

With LIV Golf out of the picture, its players are returning to the DP World Tour and eventually the PGA Tour, putting themselves back in contention for valuable world ranking points. So, former PGA Tour pros Johnson Wagner and Brendon de Jonge believe LIV Golf returnee Jon Rahm could emerge as a serious challenger to Scottie Scheffler, potentially reclaiming the World No. 1 spot he lost years ago.

“We had talked about this a couple years ago, and we kept coming up with Ludvig Aberg just because of the way he looked, and now Ludvig is sort of taken a little bit of a step back in my mind,” Wagner said. “So, I’m looking at these young guys. Can it be Jackson Koivun? Because the fact of the matter is, I mean, Rory’s 37… So I think you’ve got to look ahead to some of these younger guys. Maybe it’s Rahm. But it’s not going to be Rory, in my opinion.

“… And think about where he started the year, world ranking-wise. He was 97th before LIV started getting points… It’s been a remarkable rise. I think Rahm is the most well-suited to go ahead and ascend. And he did it when he first turned pro as well… He would have been like two or three in the world … Rahm has got the ability to go stack him up.”

Whether Rahm can actually dethrone Scheffler, who has held the World No. 1 position for more than 181 weeks, remains to be seen. For now, however, the Spaniard will have to continue that pursuit exclusively on the DP World Tour. Having chosen LIV Golf over the PGA Tour in December 2023, Rahm could face a lengthy wait before returning to the American circuit. 

He may have to serve a suspension of up to a year and pay outstanding fines before becoming eligible to compete again. In any case, Wagner’s belief in Rahm’s potential resurgence is not without merit. The 32-year-old has already claimed victory at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, helping him jump to the sixth spot on the rankings, ahead of his appearance at the DP World Tour Championship this week. 

Interestingly, a comparison of their performances this season suggests Rahm has been more consistent despite trailing the American in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR). Scheffler has won three tournaments this season and recorded 11 top-five finishes. Rahm, meanwhile, has also claimed three victories but boasts an impressive 17 top-five finishes. 

So, it shouldn’t really be a surprise that even Brendon de Jonge is backing Rahm to dethrone Scheffler.

“I had Rahm,” he said. “I think it’s going to be a reinvigorated Jon Rom coming back, and it’ll more than likely be on the DP World Tour. You win a major, you pick up some serious world ranking points quickly. I think it’s going to be Jon Rom playing with something to prove… And I just think with everything behind him now, all the uncertainty done, Jon Rom can look forward, and I expect a big year from him.”

That said, Scheffler has often skipped the PGA Tour’s fall schedule, largely limiting his appearances to its regular season events. This has opened the door for players like Jon Rahm to capitalize and gain valuable ranking points. Meanwhile, the World No. 1 has also faced criticism for his repeated absence from the fall events.

Rory McIlroy defends Scottie Scheffler

Scheffler has largely restricted his commitments to the PGA Tour, showing little interest in international tournaments or in TGL. With wife Meredith and their two young sons, Bennett and Remy, the 30-year-old appears content to prioritize family time over additional competitions and travel. Speaking at the Abu Dhabi Aldar Championship, Rory McIlroy dismissed the criticism, arguing that Scheffler’s personal choices deserve respect.

“I think people have their own decisions to make and their own lives, and I’ve seen criticism of Scottie Scheffler because Scottie doesn’t play – but that’s his decision. If he doesn’t want to, that’s his prerogative,” McIlroy said.

The Northern Irishman, who regularly travels internationally because he enjoys experiencing different countries and competing around the world, insisted Scheffler had nothing to prove.

“I think Scottie being Scottie is good enough for the world of golf, and he doesn’t need to travel all over the world because he’s got a young family, and that doesn’t bring value to his life.”

But it would be interesting to see whether the threat of losing his No. 1 spot can convince Scottie Scheffler to extend his schedule beyond the PGA Tour.