There’s much to consider when choosing a favorite at Shinnecock Hills, a stock par 70 that will stretch for 7,434 yards, a few yards shorter than in 2018, as per the PGA Tour. It’s no accident that the last U.S. Open champion to win at par or worse was here, when Brooks Koepka won with a one-stroke margin at 1-over 281. And these six pros not only have a good chance to lift the trophy on Sunday but also better that record.

1. Jon Rahm

Jon Rahm has been in strong form lately. He’s picked up two LIV Golf wins this season and came close to beating Tyrrell Hatton at Andalucia two weeks ago. He was also a serious contender at the PGA Championship, ultimately finishing T2 after Aaron Rai registered a three-shot win. Rahm’s runner-up finish was an improvement from the T38 at the Masters in April.

Regardless, the last time he played Shinnecock, he missed the cut. But since then, he has finished four top 10s here and five top 15s, including a win at the 2021 U.S. Open. Last season, he finished tied for 4th at 4-over.

According to PGA Tour data, Rahm has averaged 0.568 in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and 0.547 in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last five tournaments. His Strokes Gained: Total for that span sits at 1.631. So, expect him to be in the mix this week.

2. Scottie Scheffler

Scottie Scheffler has managed just one win this season. Since that win, as per Golfweek, he’s only been inside the top 15 after Thursday twice. In 11 starts following the win, he still has six top-10s, but by his own standards, he’s struggled on the tougher courses. For instance, T24 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T22 at THE PLAYERS, and T14 at the PGA Championship.

Still, dismissing him as a contender would be foolish. He’s tied for 51st on Tour with a 69.92 first-round scoring average, yet he leads the circuit with a 67.5 final‑round average. He also tops the Tour in key stats such as Strokes Gained: Total and SG: Tee‑to‑Green. He ranks third in SG: Around‑the‑Green and 19th in SG: Putting, but Scheffler will need to be careful about his short game on the course’s large, undulating greens.

In the last four starts in the U.S. Open, Scheffler has finished inside the top 10 three times, including T7 at Oakmont last season. If he does win on Sunday, he will become the first pro to win a major title on his birthday, per Elias Sports Bureau.

3. Tyrrell Hatton

Tyrrell Hatton, more or less, looks like he is ready to win a major now. He has five top 10 finishes this season, including a T3 finish at the Masters and a win at LIV Golf. His latest win, a wire-to-wire, two-stroke win at LIV Golf Andalucia on a challenging layout like Valderrama, shows he can handle tough courses when it matters.

Plus, Hatton has also shown good form at the U.S. Open, earning an exemption this season after a T4 last year. Over his last 18 major starts, he made the cut 16 times, recording three top 10s. When he played at Shinnecock in 2018, he posted a T6, a finish that he bettered in 2025 at Oakmont.

Now, about his stats. Tyrrell has added strokes with the driver and on approach over the last four majors. As per the PGA Tour, and across his past five events, he’s averaged 0.558 in Strokes Gained: Approach and 0.612 in Strokes Gained: Total. So, there’s plenty of promise in Hatton.

4. Rory McIlroy

Rory McIlroy is free of the burden his fellow players, especially Scheffler, will face. He has already completed his Grand Slam and twice won the Masters, so he will play like Tiger Woods did when he had already done all the great things. One of the better drivers on the Tour, McIlroy’s club will need to keep him out of trouble, including the fescue. He will still need to be careful about his putting, however. The poa annua greens can get bumpy in the afternoon.

McIlroy has also played less this season, so expect him to be well-prepared. In those eight events, he has posted three top 10s. Meanwhile, in the last five U.S. Opens, he has finished inside the top 10 four times, with the worst of these five finishes coming last year at Oakmont (T19). The last time he played at Shinnecock, however, he missed the cut.

But as his stats go, as per the PGA Tour, he has averaged 0.432 in Strokes Gained: Approach, -0.098 in Strokes Gained: Putting, and 1.003 in Strokes Gained: Total, his last five starts. 

5. Bryson DeChambeau

Bryson DeChambeau has a solid U.S. Open track record (two wins in the last five years), but his starts at the first two majors this season (MC, MC) have done little to reassure fans. He missed the cut at the 2025 U.S. Open after finishing 10-over. Still, this season on LIV, he has notched seven top-20s, including wins in Singapore and South Africa. Consider his stats, too.

According to Fox, DeChambeau has gained strokes off the tee in every major and LIV event he’s played since February 2024. Even if Shinnecock forces players to rely less on their drivers and more on their short game, he’s a surprisingly strong putter.

Data Golf shows he’s gained strokes on the greens in eight of 11 starts this season. Over his last five tournaments, as per the PGA Tour, he’s averaged 0.024 in Strokes Gained: Approach and 0.652 in Strokes Gained: Total. He has a good chance to change his major record this week.

6. Cameron Young

Cameron Young is the only other player in this list, other than Hatton, who has yet to win a major. But, just like Hatton, it is safe to say that he’s on a heater. This season, he has played 12 events, won twice, and registered a total of 6 top 10s, including finishing a T3 at the Masters.

That is a good sign, even if his last four U.S. Open finishes aren’t that great (T4, T67, T32, MC). Statistically, he’s up about 1.24 strokes per round compared with 2025. He ranks 12th in SG: Putting in this field and has gained more than two strokes putting in 23.5% of his rounds, as per Golf Digest. He also ranks ninth in bogey avoidance rate in the Shinnecock Hills field, a stat that will matter this week. He also averaged 0.383 in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green and 1.149 in Strokes Gained: Total in the last five events. 

Overall, Young is definitely a player to rely on. But so are the others.