Like many top players, Scottie Scheffler skipped the Wyndham Championship to rest and prepare for next week’s three-event FedExCup Playoffs. But the break won’t affect his standing as the World No. 1 or his lead atop the FedExCup standings. Scheffler has had a dominant showing in 2026: 16 of 17 cuts made and 16 top-25 finishes, including 1 win. But Golf Channel analyst Brandel Chamblee highlighted one reason the Dallas resident may fall short of winning his fifth consecutive PGA Tour Player of the Year award. 

“The case against him is that no player has ever been voted PGA Tour POY (since it began in 1990) who won just once during the season. But then no player has been so dominant from a scoring and statistical standpoint who won just once during the season. With no clearly dominant player thus far in either the majors or in wins, the @PGATOUR playoffs will have added meaning in determining the POY for 2026.”

While Chamblee also made a counter-argument (namely, Scheffler topping all major stats categories), the veteran analyst’s admission that the World No. 1 is on the back foot is somewhat surprising. Just a month ago, Chamblee said, while some might argue that the POY race is wide open, the World No. 1 is miles ahead of everyone and is the top contender. So what changed Chamblee’s opinion this time?

Well, there are a couple of possible factors. First, Scheffler has played three tournaments in July, and in the last one at the 3M Open, he finished at solo second. At the 2026 Open Championship, he managed a T4, but before that, he also missed the cut at the Scottish Open.

Scheffler’s season is similar to Nelly Korda’s 2025, as Chamblee cogently argued in his June post. But what makes it different is that in Korda’s case, her competitors were better. Scheffler’s case is a little different.

While the World No. 1 has been beaten by better opponents who outclassed him—Jackson Koivun being a case in point—Scheffler has also let the door open for others. After his American Express victory, he couldn’t break 70 in the first round in his next six starts. That made his late charge on Moving Day or the final round pointless. It’s evident by a simple comparison.

Scheffler’s first-round problem laid bare by the numbers

This year, Scheffler’s first-round scoring average is 69.18 compared to 67.45 last year and 67.84 in 2024. He was the leader in Round 1 scoring average both times and was more than two strokes better than the PGA Tour average. Now he is 13th and one stroke better than the rest of the players.

Furthermore, Scheffler ranks 1st in R4 scoring average and 2nd in both R2 and R3 scoring average in 2026. Clearly, his first-round mishaps coupled with his baffling drop in iron play have spoiled his chances. In addition, a key strength of Scheffler seems to have deserted him.

Around this time, last year, Scheffler was the best player on the PGA Tour in bounce-back percentage (when a player makes a birdie or better right after a bogey or worse). In fact, he was head and shoulders above anyone (36.36% compared to the PGA Tour average of 21.42%). This season?

Scheffler ranks 40th (24.32%).

Compared to the PGA Tour average of 21.18%, he is just marginally better. Clearly, he hasn’t been as dominant as he was last year, and Brandel Chamblee believes the FedExCup Playoffs will likely play a more significant role in determining POY than it did in the last two years.

Interestingly, Chamblee also noted why some might argue Scheffler still deserves the POY Award. And there is merit in that too.

Chamblee’s counterargument offers some hope for Scottie Scheffler fans

Chamblee acknowledged that there were some numbers overwhelmingly favoring Scheffler.

The World No. 1 leads in several key statistical categories, including Scoring Average (Actual) (68.08), Birdie Average (4.76), Bogey Avoidance (10.02%), SG: Total (2.251), SG: Tee-to-Green (1.682), and Greens in Regulation Percentage (72.73%). 

The last one—GIR Percentage—highlights a baffling paradox in Scottie’s game. While he leads the tour in reaching greens in regulation, Scheffler is outside the top 50 when it comes to approach shots from 200-250 yards.

Nevertheless, Scheffler ranks first in Front 9 Scoring Average (33.94), Back 9 Scoring Average (34.14), Putts from -> 25′ (10.37%), Scrambling (67.28%), and Official Money ($16,911,275). Scheffler also leads the Tour with 11 top-10 finishes, including eight top-3 finishes. 

And yet…

Despite another stellar season, Scheffler has captured just one PGA Tour title in 2026: the American Express on January 25. That relatively modest win total could open the door for other players to claim the Jack Nicklaus Award.

Who can beat Scottie Scheffler in the POY Race?

One leading contender is Rory McIlroy. Although he has played a reduced schedule, the World No. 2 sits 12th in the FedExCup standings and won the 2026 Masters. 

McIlroy edged Scheffler by one stroke at Augusta National, successfully defending a Masters title to become just the fourth golfer in history to join Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo, and Tiger Woods. Then you have Cameron Young.

He is third in FedEx Cup standings, has two titles this season, and has eight top tens. Among his victories are The Players Championship and the Cadillac Championship—one is the PGA Tour’s flagship event, and the other is a signature event. Young was also solo second at the Open Championship and had a T3 at the Masters.

Don’t count out Matt Fitzpatrick, Chris Gotterup, and Wyndham Clark either.

Fitzy is second in FedExCup standings, has won three times, including the Zurich Classic with his brother, and also managed eight top-tens, including two runner-ups. Clark has obviously won the U.S. Open. Meanwhile, Gotterup is fast rising as the Tour’s next big name.

The 27-year-old, who broke through last year, has won three times this season, including a playoff victory at the WM Phoenix Open.

Still, the race is far from over. The FedExCup Playoffs could play a pivotal role in shaping voters’ opinions.

A strong finish from either McIlroy or Scheffler would bolster their respective campaigns, leaving the final decision to PGA Tour members when voting concludes later this year.

PGA Tour members typically cast their votes in mid-December, following the calendar year’s end, to announce the PGA Tour Player of the Year award, also known as the Jack Nicklaus Award.

The honor is determined by fellow professional golfers, who consider a player’s tournament victories, performances in the four major championships, scoring average, consistency, and overall success throughout the season.