The stakes couldn’t be more symmetrical. Two teams locked in perfect equilibrium with 8 wins, 8 losses. Both squads are preparing to tip the balance. The Aces currently hold the 7th spot in the league, with the Fever trailing just behind at 8th. After tonight’s clash, the winner will earn more than just bragging rights. They will earn a chance to set their sights on Golden State’s coveted 6th-place perch. That said, the Fever may be stepping onto the court with a small advantage: Confidence.

They are riding high after a statement win in the Commissioner’s Cup final against none other than the league-leading Lynx. Moreover, if HC Stephanie White’s statements are any proof, then they are over the high of winning the cup, and now the full focus is on the next game. “By the time I got on the plane, I was over it. You have to get ready for the next game. It’s the nature of compartmentalization,” said White. However, let’s not underestimate the Aces’ position just yet.

That squad has successfully captured a Nalyssa Smith named weapon from the Wings on Monday. She was originally drafted by the Fever in 2024 and retained heading into 2025. Smith is no stranger to Indiana fans. They know all too well that the Fever rarely miss when it comes to spotting talent. Now, as she suits up against the very franchise that first believed in her, expect Smith to make a statement. Apart from that, the Aces are also riding off a victory, defeating the overall 2nd-seeded Mercury.

Predicting the outcome of this one is no easy task. But don’t worry, we’ve got you covered. Let’s break it all down…

The Injury Report

Indiana Fever:

• Caitlin Clark (Guard): Out (Groin injury)
• Damiris Dantas (Forward): Out (Overseas play)

Caitlin Clark has been officially ruled out for Thursday’s game vs. the Las Vegas Aces (as of July 3). It came as a bit of a shocker because the hope was that CC would at least get some minutes in the game against the Aces. Especially considering the fact that she was listed day-to-day before the games against the Lynx. However, HC White’s statement before the game told a completely different story.

She said, “My goal has always been the same. I don’t want this to be something that lingers… we want to make sure that she is 100% ready to go.” Whereas Damiris Dantas’ absence is an expected one. Her contract was suspended by the Fever on June 25 (per Tony East of The Next) as she has gone to represent Brazil in the Women’s AmeriCup tournament. In her and DeWanna Bonner’s absence, the Fever re-signed Aari McDonald, who will be suiting up tonight with the rest of the squad.

Las Vegas Aces:

• Megan Gustafson (Center): Out (Leg injury)
• Cheyenne Parker-Tyus (Forward): Out (Personal leave)

Megan Gustafson’s availability status has been upgraded to doubtful for Thursday’s game vs. the Fever. Whereas Cheyenne Parker-Tyus has been inactive since April. Vegas has recently acquired Nalyssa Smith from the Wings. It serves as a move to fill the gaps in their roster and leave no margin against the Fever.

“Sick to my stomach dawg , never seen this coming but .. i love you dallas nation, thank you 4 everything,” posted Smith. She has bid farewell to her previous squad, where she was with her partner, DiJonai Carrington. Nalyssa is now all set to suit up for the Aces tonight.

Predicted Starting 5

Indiana Fever

• Natasha Howard (#6)
• Aliyah Boston (#7)
• Kelsey Mitchell (#0)
• Aari McDonald (#2)
• Lexie Hull (#10)

With Caitlin Clark out, the Fever turned to Natasha Howard in their last showdown. And she stepped up big time with a 16-point, 12-rebound double-double and a +17 plus-minus. Aliyah Boston brought intensity to the Fever’s play, and we can expect her to bring it today as well. She put up 12 points, 11 rebounds, and 6 assists to control the paint. Kelsey Mitchell had an off-shooting night but still managed 10 points and 3 assists.

Aari McDonald was efficient with 12 points on 5-6 shooting. Although Lexie Hull started last time out, chances are Sophie Cunningham might take some of her minutes after heating up off the bench with 13 points and three triples. And Sydney Colson will also provide a veteran presence and some steady playmaking. Indiana is likely to stick to this rotation and momentum when they face the Aces tonight.

Las Vegas Aces

• Kiah Stokes (#41)
• A’ja Wilson (#22)
• Chelsea Gray (#12)
• Jewell Loyd (#24)
• Jackie Young (#0)

Coming off a strong bounce-back win, the Aces rode their championship core once again last time, and they will be looking to do the same tonight. As always, expect A’ja Wilson to dominate the paint like last time with 26 points, 15 rebounds, and 3 blocks, finishing at +7. Jackie Young also chipped in 15 points, while Chelsea Gray and Jewell Loyd combined for 16, with Gray adding 5 assists.

Off the bench, Aaliyah Nye could be a huge spark. Last time she went on to drop 16 points on 5-7 shooting from deep. Moreover, now, with NaLyssa Smith joining the team, the Aces get even more frontcourt depth with her rebounding and inside scoring. She averaged 6.7 points and 4.9 rebounds with the Wings.

How Things Might Look Tonight…

First up, ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gives the Indiana Fever a slight advantage. It says 56.2% to Las Vegas’ 43.8%. And honestly, that makes sense. The Fever are rolling right now, their offense is firing on all cylinders. They are ranking fourth in the league. They are also outscoring opponents by an average of 4.0 points per game. This just shows how well they’re gelling as a team. All this with Caitlin Clark already missing 8 games of the season and her 3rd straight game in a row against the Lynx.

On the other hand, the Aces are still working to find their groove. They are only scoring 0.8 more points per game than Indiana typically gives up. And they have actually been outscored overall this season. But with A’ja Wilson playing at an MVP level and the recent addition of NaLyssa Smith, Las Vegas is definitely not a team to be taken lightly.

Rebounding should be a tight battle tonight. And the Aces will need to bump up their 40.8% shooting to match the Indiana Fever’s intensity. But if Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young heat up early, and their bench keeps producing, this game could come down to the final moments. Stay tuned to know more…