The AL MVP race was expected to be Aaron Judge’s coronation. With the Yankees slugger once again powering the lineup and delivering video-game numbers, few doubted Judge’s claim. However, MLB has a way of throwing curveballs, and in 2025, it is Seattle Mariners’ powerhouse catcher who has made the race the most heated showdown of the season.

Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh, a switch-hitter renowned for his power and elite defense, has been having a historic 2025 season, breaking records and emerging as a top contender in the AL MVP race.

Aaron Judge has advanced metrics, percentages, and offensive dominance that usually define an MVP. As per ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle, the Yankees star’s AXE score sits at 153, a commanding edge over Raleigh’s 144. Judge also leads by a wide margin in OPS+ and wRC+, while producing 31 more runs with 68 fewer outs. That data screams “MVP.” Yet the story does not end there because Raleigh has something Judge does not: history on his side.

The breaking point? ESPN predicts that Cal Raleigh, despite trailing Aaron Judge in most traditional comparisons, will outlast the Yankees star at the finish line. The Mariners star has already shattered the single-season home run record for catchers and is close to breaking Mickey Mantle’s legendary switch-hitter record. Add to this the fact that Cal Raleigh plays an elite defensive position, with FanGraphs ranking the catcher the fourth-most valuable defender in the AL, and suddenly the odds tilt toward him. ESPN BET highlights that, with Aaron Judge at -350 (78 percent chance), Raleigh surges at +200.

Still, some fans ask: if the Yankees star has clearly been the better all-around hitter, why is Cal Raleigh predicted to leapfrog Judge? The answer lies in endurance and the narrative. Raleigh is not just posting numbers; he is redefining offensive expectations for a catcher while leading a playoff push. Voters value history, and if Raleigh breaks the 60-home run mark on a postseason-bound team, his MVP case becomes nearly indisputable.

Yet there is a twist: fatigue. Since the All-Star break, the Seattle Mariners star has hit just .208 and shown clear signs of wear from the daily grind of catching. If Raleigh’s bat cools further and the team falters in the race, Judge’s steady dominance could swing voters back in his favor. ESPN’s final call? Cal Raleigh will break Mantle’s record but falls short of 60 homers, just enough to deny Judge what once seemed like a sure MVP.

But Judge’s MVP battle is not his only battle this September; there is another challenge looming, this time from Oakland’s electrifying newcomer.

Jacob Wilson is inching closer to Yankees’ Aaron Judge in the batting title race

Jacob Wilson’s rookie campaign has been nothing short of remarkable, and his late-season surge has reignited hopes of stealing the AL batting crown from Judge. After a tough July slump and injury, Wilson has rebounded with a scorching .346 average over his past seven games. That bump has lifted his average to .319, trailing Judge’s .321 by a slim margin. For a first-year player, this rebound shows poise and timing, keeping him firmly in contention.

What makes Wilson’s pursuit even more compelling is the historical significance of the batting title. While Rookie of the Year is a celebrated honor, the batting crown carries league-wide prestige as proof of pure hitting skill against the league’s best pitching. Recent champions like Bobby Witt Jr. (.332 in 2024) and Luis Arraez (three straight titles) reinforce the elite company Wilson could join. Even if Nick Kurtz claims Rookie of the Year, Wilson’s battle for the batting crown against Judge highlights his star potential.

In the end, both Aaron Judge and Jacob Wilson are developing favourably, one of the most compelling finishes baseball fans could hope for. Judge continues to anchor the Yankees with MVP-level production, while Wilson has appeared as a fearless rookie hunting down one of the league’s most respected hitters. Whether Wilson finally edges Judge for the batting title or simply proves he belongs among the elite, his rise signals a bright future. Stay tuned, because September is setting up to be a thrilling sprint you definitely would not want to miss.

In the end, both Aaron Judge and Jacob Wilson are shaping a thrilling September finish to the MLB season. Judge continues anchoring the Yankees with MVP-level offense, while Wilson’s fearless charge as a rookie challenges the league’s top hitters. Whether Wilson surpasses Judge for the batting crown or cements his place among the elite, the AL’s race promises unforgettable baseball drama.