A 3.91 ERA isn’t necessarily alarming. But for a reigning Cy Young winner who posted 1.97 last season, the number tells a very different story. Paul Skenes’ fastball velocity dropped from 98.1 mph in 2025 to 96.9 this season, something he noticed as early as the spring. Now the Pittsburgh Pirates ace believes he may have an explanation for part of that decline, pointing to his participation in the World Baseball Classic.
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“There are a lot of other factors, so I don’t want to put everything on that. But I feel like that was kind of the root of it a little bit,” Skenes told Colin Beazley, as per Underdog MLB. “It definitely affected the year.”
Skenes said that March is the time when he usually ramps up his velocity. But he admitted that progress is usually slow. He said it works like a slope to adjust the body, building his velocity from 97 mph to 99 mph. Instead, he was representing Team USA in the WBC 2026 and hadn’t had the time to go through his usual process.
The now-24-year-old made his MLB debut in 2024 and had an average velocity of 98.8 for his 4-seam fastballs. He had a 11-3 record from 23 starts with a 1.96 ERA and 170 strikeouts in his rookie season. Next year, he averaged 98.1 mph fastballs while recording a 1.97 ERA and 216 Ks over 32 starts.
In the 2026 regular season, his WHIP jumped to 1.13 from 0.95, and his WAR dropped from 7.6 to just 3.1. Skenes has allowed 81 runs this season, which is more than the combined numbers from his last two years. He even exited a game earlier in August after just 65 pitches, and his average velocity (95.7 mph) hit a career low.
“When you go outing to outing, you don’t really see the big picture sometimes. And I think looking back, I can kind of see it now,” the ace said in the interview with the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. “Because early in the season, you can get away with stuff mechanically or you might not be moving perfectly, but you’re fresh, and the velo is there because you’re feeling good.”
Paul Skenes added that a pitcher can’t get away with it in July, August or September. He even admitted that he was purposely not throwing as hard earlier in the season. He simply expected the velocity to return and adjust his body accordingly as the season progressed. But he couldn’t get back to the 98-99 mph range. That means the issue was more serious than just an early-season dip.
WBC wasn’t the only factor
The 3x MLB All-Star also sought answers through mechanical adjustments throughout the season. And the most noticeable change, as per Beazley, was his shift from the typical crossfire delivery. Skenes originally used a rotational footing for his throws and opted for one where he steps directly toward the plate. Then he switched it back again.
He admitted that it was one of the several changes he made this year. And there were significantly more mechanical tweaks than he had last season. There were flashes of high-velocity pitches, and many thought he was getting back to his usual form. But it dipped again in subsequent outings, and the inconsistency became a part of his struggle.
Skenes won the Rookie of the Year award in 2024 and earned the Cy Young award last year. But this year, he isn’t even in the top contenders. The Pirates, sitting 7.0 games behind the last National League Wild Card spot with 6 games remaining, have already been eliminated. The right-hander has one more outing scheduled before the regular season wraps up.
That means returning to his previous velocity will require most of the offseason. But the goal isn’t simply about throwing as hard as he can. Paul Skenes wants to get back to the physical progression and delivery that allowed him to consistently operate at his previous level.
“Yeah, it’s just tough,” he admitted.
Although he admitted that the World Baseball Classic wasn’t the sole reason behind the decline in his performance, he was certain that it wasn’t the only factor. While the honor of representing his country on one of the biggest international stages is one of a kind, he acknowledged that it “Definitely didn’t make things easier.”