Have you ever watched a building implode? The kind where a few explosives go off by the sides, and the foundation buckles—then suddenly the entire structure caves in on itself? Well, that’s what the Detroit Tigers look like right now.

On Tuesday night in Cleveland, the Detroit Tigers ended up collapsing again. They fell 5-2 to the Cleveland Guardians in the series opener of the three-game set. What’s alarming is—this is not just a one-off loss. What was once a towering division lead for the Tigers has now vanished completely. The Tigers (85-72) and the Guardians (85-72) now share the same record with just five games left in the regular season.

The Tigers have a handful of chances to prevent them from making the worst kind of baseball history. With their loss to the Braves on Sunday, they are now one loss and one Guardians win away from blowing what was a 15.5-game lead over Cleveland on July 8 and a 14-game cushion over the Royals and the Twins. If they miss the postseason, then those 15.5 games would mark the biggest lead ever blown by any AL or NL first-place team in 125 years of modern-era baseball. For the Tigers, the walls are closing in and fast. And ESPN just gave A.J. Hinch a stern warning about their dire condition and the playoff dreams.

ESPN mentioned, “For three-plus months, this was an A+. On July 8, the Tigers were 59-34, the best record in the majors—and it was no fluke, as they had deployed impressive roster depth and production up and down the lineup, with Tarik Skubal once again on his way to a Cy Young Award. But now? This season could end up as one of the most crushing, not just in Detroit history but in MLB history, if the Tigers don’t hold on to the division title or at least a wild card. Both of those are in jeopardy… And if the Tigers don’t make the playoffs? Let’s just say this will no longer be a passing grade.”

Not just A.J. Hinch, even the President of Baseball Operations, Scott Harris, was thrown under the bus recently for the team’s downfall. And honestly, it’s not just the standings that are a red flag or concern. It’s how they are losing that is more alarming. They lost the game on Tuesday that they had a lead in. They were at a 2-0 lead after Riley Greene homered, and with their ace, Skubal, on the mound. But then came an inning that is straight out of a troll video or a blooper—two bunts, an error, a wild pitch, and even a balk. By the time the dust had settled, the Guardians had snatched the game away from their hands. Not to mention that freak accident that happened!

Hinch did admit afterwards that “that’s an uncharacteristic mistake piling up on us at the worst time.” And for sure, they are having the worst time because the Tigers dropped seven straight and 11 of their last 12 games. And even the tempers seem to be flying now—like Spencer Torkelson, who was seen slamming his bat in frustration after striking out late. Yes, the Detroit Tigers still cling to their wild card spot, but the season is for sure hanging by a thread.

How the Guardians crashed the Detroit Tigers’ party

For months now, the Detroit Tigers have felt like they had a lock on the AL Central. But really, baseball, as it so often does, has other plans. Tigers fans were busy beating their chests with Skubal, and his heroics, but what luck—Tarik Skubal became the root cause of the unraveling with the Guardians. And as far as Cleveland goes, they have turned the entire division race upside down. Not only did they position themselves into a better standing, but they also hold the all-important head-to-head tiebreaker. And honestly, the timing of Cleveland’s surge is surreal.

The Cleveland Guardians have won none of their last 10 games. They are on the hottest stretch of the season. At BetMGM Sportsbook, they’re now -225 favorites to win the division. And here are some stats for better context, at the All-Star break: Guardians were +15000, and that gave them just a 1% chance. Meanwhile, Detroit was a -10000 favorite, so a sure bet. So this flip of fate has been great for the Guardians and heartbreaking for the Tigers fans. That being said, Detroit is not out of the scene yet.

Given they are at 85-72, they are one game up on the Astros. They also hurt their own chances with a loss to the Athletics. That cushion matters for the Tigers. They could go just 2-3 the rest of the way and still finish ahead of the Astros. Since the Astros lose nearly every tiebreaker scenario. If you look at playoff projections, the Tigers still have an 80% chance of reaching October. But the division is slipping away.

Cleveland Guardians’ edge in that tiebreaker means the Tigers not only have to match them but also finish a game ahead of them to get the crown of the division back. That feels like a long shot—given how good the Guardians are at the right time.