In MLB, storylines can shift with a single swing or decision. While the league buzzes about Juan Soto’s record-breaking contract and the seismic shifts it could cause, the New York Mets are facing a potential earthquake of their own. And it’s not just about the numbers on the scoreboard. It’s about the numbers on Pete Alonso’s next contract—and whether those numbers will be paid by the Mets or someone else.

Going into Tuesday evening, Alonso was fourth in all of baseball in OPS at a high 0.965 ringside. He had been the Mets’ crutch, the team’s power hitter, and an outstanding clubhouse presence. Now, however, Alonso will probably opt out and chase the long-term deal he so desperately was craving last season. Instead of chasing that payday, he returned to New York with a two-year, $54 million contract—a band-aid solution probably drawing to its end.

The minute Alonso does not remain in Queens, he instantly becomes the most sought-after free-agent name outside of Kyle Tucker. The Mets, meanwhile, would surely have to watch the demise of their biggest star just as the NL East arms race starts its boil down.

If Pete Alonso hits the open market, suitors are already lining up. The Phillies look like an obvious fit—Bryce Harper has reportedly offered to move back to the outfield to make room for Alonso at first base. The Cubs, always in the hunt for power, should be firmly in the mix for any big bat not named Kyle Tucker. The Rangers and Mariners both need Alonso’s power and leadership, and the Red Sox could probably become involved if they manage to keep Rafael Devers at DH.

It’s not just about home runs. It’s about presence. Alonso’s leadership, his ability to change a game with one swing, and his postseason pedigree make him a rare commodity. And with Soto, Tucker, and Bregman setting the market, Alonso’s next deal could be a blockbuster.

Mets’ offseason gamble: Did they blink?

Last winter, the Mets played hardball, refusing to meet Alonso’s long-term demands. Instead, they bet on a short-term deal, hoping to keep their options open. Now, with Alonso mashing and the team’s future uncertain, that gamble looks riskier by the day.

The Mets’ front office has insisted they want to build around their slugger. But with the free-agent market about to explode—thanks in part to Soto’s $765 million megadeal and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s $500 million extension—Alonso’s price tag may soon be out of reach.

The Mets aren’t the only ones sweating this summer. The Cubs, Phillies, Rangers, Mariners, and Red Sox all have some holes at one or the other first base or DH. And each team is a contender; therefore, each one has money to spend; each one views this addition to the roster as the difference between October glory and another bleak winter.

Every agent in baseball is licking their chops with Juan Soto’s contract bringing in a new era of value. Kyle Tucker will to become the third-highest-paid player in MLB history. Opting out this year and having a career year: that’d be another candidate in Bregman.

The stakes have never been higher for the Mets; if Alonso is lost, then what will the team lose besides his heart and identity within the lineup? They can keep Alonso, but at a cost so high that it will hinder and compromise the team’s flexibility for years.

As the trade deadline looms and free agency approaches, the Mets and their fans face a gargantuan question: Do they risk losing Pete Alonso, or is this the moment they finally go all-in? The answer may define not just a season, but an era in Queens.