The MLB trade deadline is a carnival of speculation. This year, the eye of that storm is Miami Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara. The former Cy Young winner has drawn interest from nearly every contender. The Dodgers, the Red Sox, and the Cubs have previously been associated with the right-hander, and Miami has held firm on a massive asking price of two prospects. Alcantara himself has publicly expressed his desire to remain where he is: “Everybody knows… I want to be here.” But now, a new desperate team has jumped into the mix: the Houston Astros.

The situation escalated dramatically with a single tweet.

USA TODAY’s Bob Nightengale shared an update about the developing saga. “The Houston Astros are now engaged in trade discussions with the Miami Marlins for ace Sandy Alcantara,” Nightengale reported. He added that this major pivot came “after talks with the San Diego Padres for starter Dylan Cease have cooled.” This felt like a shocking angle to Houston’s deadline approach.

For weeks, Dylan Cease had been Houston’s top priority. The righty has elite underlying metrics despite a high 4.79 ERA. His 3.64 FIP suggests he’s been a victim of bad luck. But negotiations broke down over a crucial reason. The Padres are not only selling; they are buying. San Diego was asking for big leaguers back for a rental pitcher. They wanted talent to help their own playoff push. This was a problem for the Astros – there is no such player in their farm system.

And so, the shift to Alcantara certainly makes sense. He isn’t a rental. The former Cy Young award winner is signed through 2026. This long-term control suits Houston, which has had its rotation ravaged by long-term injuries. The Marlins, unlike the Padres, want a package of top prospects. The Astros can put together a package involving outfielder Jacob Melton and infielder Brice Matthews. This might make a deal with Miami much more likely than a deal with San Diego was.

Amidst all these, another report by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal only added to the intrigue.

“Ken Rosenthal reports they club officials for the Astros think they’ll be outbid for Sandy or Cease,” Ryan Garcia tweeted. The reason for their pessimism was clear. “NYY is in on Alcantara, they are not alone.” The New York Yankees, Houston’s top rival, had joined the chat. And they rolled in with a war chest of elite prospects.

The Yankees are in a position to hijack the Alcantara discussions.

They have their own desperate need for an ace. Gerrit Cole is out for the season with an injury. Plus, New York can offer a package the Astros can’t match. Their minor league system is stacked with elite talents like outfielder Spencer Jones, a hulking power hitter who has drawn Aaron Judge comparisons. Then there is also outfielder George Lombard Jr. and the multiskilled Jasson Domínguez. A trade headlined by any of these players would be a monster deal for Miami.

The domino effect: Plan B for the runners-up

Only one team will get Sandy Alcantara. That leaves the other suitors scrambling for Plan B. Luckily for those teams, there are other quality arms available for the right price.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are listening to offers for Mitch Keller. He is a workhorse with a solid 3.69 ERA. Even better, he’s under contract through 2028 on a team-friendly deal. The Pirates are asking for MLB-ready hitters in return for this durable arm. If the Cubs bring top prospect Owen Caissie to the table, another team would have to override that strong offer.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are having a fire sale. They are trying to trade their two best veteran starters, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Both are pending free agents, so they are pure rentals. Gallen has struggled to a 5.60 ERA but has a track record of ace-level performance. Kelly has been the steadier option, with a 3.22 ERA this season. The D-backs want pitching prospects in exchange. This makes them a perfect fit for a team like the Yankees if they don’t end up signing Alcantara.

Below the top names, there are many other intriguing options.

The Marlins may also trade Eward Cabrera, who has electric stuff and is controllable until 2029. But the price to acquire him is also likely to be steep. For budget-conscious teams, veteran rentals such as Charlie Morton or Tyler Anderson may offer valuable innings down the stretch.

Clearly, the market is full of possibilities. And the final hours of the deadline can surely have a dramatic climax.