After a low-key non-tender deadline that most people expected, it looked like the Astros were boxed in financially, with little room to make any real noise this winter. And for a while, it felt hard to imagine Houston pulling off anything significant. Then, everything flipped!

First came an agreement with former first-rounder Nate Pearson, a low-risk move but one with some upside. Not long after, the Astros dipped into the KBO market, signing under-the-radar standout Ryan Weiss after his impressive 2.87 ERA season in 2025, betting that his success could carry over to MLB.

And then out of absolutely nowhere, Houston landed 27-year-old Japanese phenom Tatsuya Imai. A move that completely blew up expectations about their offseason plans. Now, with the gap between the Astros and Framber Valdez growing, manager Joe Espada has added even more fuel to the conversation by making a bold statement about Imai.

“It’s a resilient arm; this kid has just been talking to him for a few minutes. He’s got this fire in his eyes; this guy is a winner. He wants to win, and we are excited to have him,” Espada talks about Imai via MLB Network Radio.

Well, what Espada is saying about Imai actually lines up perfectly with the hype.

Just look at Imai’s resume: a 10–5 record, a 1.92 ERA over 163⅔ innings, 178 SOs against only 45 walks. For the unversed, he helped toss eight innings of a combined no-hitter on April 18, then followed that up with a ridiculous 17-strikeout performance on June 17.

Then, Imai got a fastball that lives in the 93–97 mph range and has touched 99, and it’s easy to see why righties had no answers. Against left-handed hitters, Imai adjusted by leaning more on his changeup and splitter late in the season, which helped smooth out platoon issues that had bothered him in the past.

However, while the Astros are understandably riding high on Imai, his arrival complicates things for Framber Valdez.

Notably, Valdez is 32 and heading into free agency for the first time. He’s been durable and reliable, but he’s also at the age where decline becomes a real concern. And even if Houston wanted to keep him, they’ve already committed money to KBO standout Ryan Weiss. So, all signs point to it being unlikely that Valdez and Imai end up sharing the same rotation in Houston.

The Astros might be done this offseason after Imai

Well, the contract for Tatsuya Imai consists of a three-year, $54 million deal. But if Imai logs at least 100 innings in a season, he can earn another $3 million in incentives, pushing the total value up to $63 million.

Now, from a payroll standpoint, Imai counts as $18 million toward the luxury tax right now. And that matters because owner Jim Crane has made it clear that the $244 million tax threshold is basically a hard line for the Astros. So, if Imai triggers those escalators, his tax hit jumps to $21 million, tightening things even more.

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According to Spotrac, their payroll for next season stands at about $234 million, leaving roughly $10 million to work with. And most of that needs to be reserved for in-season moves. So, after dealing with Tatsuya Imai, it’s becoming clear to the Astros that they are essentially tapped out. And this is probably the end of their offseason shopping.