MLB viewership increased significantly in 2026, with national games averaging a 44% year-over-year jump early in the season to post the league’s best ratings since 2017. Japanese audiences hit all-time highs, driven heavily by high-profile international players. But just when MLB is buoyed by such numbers, an impending lockout could bring a sudden halt. MLB and MLBPA already pitched their proposals and counterproposals, hinting at a long battle.

However, just as the current MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement’s December 1 deadline is approaching, the Braves’ 1995 World Series champion, John Smoltz, offers a reality check.

“We know that if they don’t get this worked out, baseball will suffer. They cannot afford to have a stoppage with all the good that has been done and all the great games that have been played lately with the World Series,” Smoltz told Fox News Digital in a recent interview.

MLB last witnessed a lockout back in 1994-95. It led to the postponement of preseason camps, leaving players less time to prepare. Canceled games cost teams, stadium staff, and local businesses millions in lost revenue. Most importantly, fans grow frustrated seeing wealthy owners and players argue over money, leading them to abandon the sport.

Just when MLB is taking leaps in viewership, another lockout means the game will be isolated from fans.

The biggest flashpoint between MLB and MLBPA now is the salary cap. MLBPA initially proposed a $150 million salary floor. They also demanded to raise the luxury tax threshold to $300 million next year. MLB countered that with a proposal to implement a hard salary cap of $245.3 million and a salary floor of $171.2 million, along with a 50-50 revenue split.

As per MLB, “The MLBPA’s proposal would reduce the amount transferred to lower-revenue Clubs, weaken the Competitive Balance Tax, and lead to even more payroll disparity than exists today.” They even cited the Dodgers as an example, and so Smoltz. “There’s a competition issue in baseball and a disparity that’s bigger than ever. And I think a lot of it’s been on purpose to get to this point, when you have the Dodgers spending beyond belief and the Mets spending beyond belief. Until recently, nothing guaranteed a championship,” Smoltz added.

MLBPA demanded that the luxury tax threshold be raised to $300 million next year. This year, it stands at $244 million, while the Dodgers’ 2026 payroll stands at $413 million. They owe $162 million in luxury tax this year, but if the threshold gets raised, the Dodgers need to pay less, furthering the disparity. MLBPA expectedly declined the proposal.

“Of course I do,” even MLB commissioner Rob Manfred fears a potential lockout. But Manfred’s other proposal could also create a tussle between the two parties.

MLB’s centralized media plan could be another flashpoint

It is no longer a secret that Manfred wants to have bundled media rights for all 30 teams, similar to the NFL. “We got a lot of people (who) watch every single day,” the MLB commissioner said about creating a single window for the fans to watch all the games. MLB targets the expiration of current rights in 2028. And to bypass failing Regional Sports Networks (RSNs) and maximize the sport’s total revenue.

Reportedly, MLB has already taken over local media operations for several franchises  (Padres and Guardians) to protect revenue streams following the Diamond Sports Group bankruptcy. But it would face resistance from the big-market teams like the Dodgers.

The Dodgers currently earn a staggering average of $334 million annually through 2038 from a highly lucrative deal with Charter’s SportsNet LA. Now, centralizing local media rights means this massive sum would be pooled with all 30 teams and distributed evenly. Thus, severely diminishing the Dodgers’ financial advantage. So, there are several flashpoints active that would keep the MLB executives busy in the next few months. 

But in case of a lockout, it will be the fans, the biggest stakeholders of the sport, who will suffer.