When the Blue Jays brought in Max Scherzer on a one-year, $15.5 million deal, they added him to an already seasoned rotation headlined by Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, and Chris Bassitt. Expectations were high. But his first appearance in Toronto was anything but reassuring. On March 29 against Baltimore, Scherzer lasted only three innings before right thumb inflammation forced him onto the injured list. Since returning, however, the 41-year-old has reminded everyone why his name belongs among the greats: he went 5-2 with a solid 3.82 ERA in 12 starts. Still, despite the resurgence, his future with the team is uncertain.

MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson dropped an update on TSN’s OverDrive show when asked about Scherzer’s chances of returning. “Give me 30%,” Matheson started. “Give me a one-third-ish odds, because at this point in Max Scherzer’s career, I would ask you guys. What’s changed since last year? Last year, he was kind of taking a chance on the Blue Jays in the winter. They were projected to win 78-79 games. This was not supposed to happen.

“He’s not 31, he’s 41. And you’ve only got so many cracks at this left. So, if it’s worked in Toronto, if it’s worked with Pete Walker, the pitching coach, you like being around Kevin Gausman, we’ll see what happens with Shane Bieber, this coaching staff, if you’re happy here and you’re winning and you’re getting paid, makes a lot of sense.”

And most importantly, “the Jays will need at least another starter, a real starter in free agency next year, not just a depth guy,” Matheson added on the OverDrive show. But still, “winning can convince you to do a lot of things. If they go on a playoff run here, there’s going to be a lot of reasons to run it back, even at 41 going on 42,” Matheson said at the end.

Half of Scherzer’s starts this year have been quality ones, and he really shone this month. In five starts, the player won four of them, pitching into at least the sixth in all of them. Also, he hasn’t allowed more than six hits in any of those outings. His run has pushed his name into the rotation for postseason, and also made his case for being the game one starter for Toronto, a team that hopes to escape the Wild Card round.

And let us not forget that Scherzer’s postseason and two World Series championship experiences only help. If he can get the team deep into October, the Blue Jays might consider bringing him back next season. But what if they don’t?

Rotation reality… who stays, who leaves

Toronto currently rides a veteran-first rotation led by Kevin Gausman and José Berríos. Chris Bassitt and Scherzer pitched well but are set to become free agents. This would leave two massive voids in the starting rotation. But thankfully, the team has internal options like Alek Manoah, a former Cy Young finalist, who is expected back from surgery. Bowden Francis is also another option for the team.

Behind them, top prospect Trey Yesavage is knocking on the door. And one can’t ignore Shane Bieber’s health, as he can opt out if he rediscovers full velocity. And the payroll picture complicates any reunion, as Bo Bichette’s looming extension demands priority. His new deal could consume significant salary space and could affect Scherzer’s contract in the upcoming winter. But despite all of that, the Blue Jays will certainly need to sign at least one proven starter. The question is, should that starter be Max Scherzer? And here, several factors are working against this reunion:

• First and foremost is Scherzer’s age and health. So, committing a large salary to a 41-year-old with a recent injury history is a huge risk for any team.
• Second, his amazing performance this season could result in bigger offers from other teams in free agency that the Jays can not match, even if they want to.
• And finally, there’s always the chance Scherzer simply decides to retire as he has nothing left to prove in his career anymore. Fans would love to see him stay, but it’s possible he walks away.