With only 16 games left in the season, we can say that many of the decisions the Blue Jays have made so far this season have paid off beautifully. Remember Toronto’s midseason bid ahead of the trade deadline? They signed the 2020 AL Cy Young Award winner from the Cleveland Guardians in exchange for minor league pitcher Khal Stephen to a one-year $14 million deal with a $16 million player option for 2026. Manager John Schneider said, “You can allow yourself to get pretty excited when you’re adding a guy of that caliber. Once you get to know him, he’s the definition of a pro,” about the pitcher who has hardly pitched in the last two seasons.

Since then, Shane Bieber threw six innings of two-hit, one-run in his Toronto debut, fresh off TJ. And then followed that with 5.1 innings, allowing just two runs. Bieber even had a very rough inning against the Reds, where he allowed 5 hits and 5 runs in the second inning, but came off with flying colors in the next four shutout hitless innings in his start 3rd.

This has created a complex offseason puzzle that ESPN’s Jeff Passan already indicated, “being traded to Toronto allowed Bieber a hall pass from the qualifying offer, which is enough to take his $4 million buyout and turn down a $16 million option — provided he remains healthy for the rest of the season.”

Passan predicted Bieber will opt out. And according to Spotrac estimation, his next market value would be around $145 million, a 6-year deal on the open market. So, the Jays must face a decision about whom they will re-sign for their upcoming free agency: Shane Bieber or shortstop Bo Bichette?

When asked who is more likely to re-sign, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic said, “Bichette seems more likely at this point.” While money often wins in free agency, Bannon thinks Toronto holds several key “tiebreakers” with Boo. In contrast, “The Jays just don’t have the same history with Bieber,” Bannon explained. Bieber has significant personal ties to the West Coast, as he was born and raised in California and currently resides in Arizona. These connections could make teams in that region far more appealing.

So, if he gets that money from any West Coast team, there is a pretty chance that he can decline his option. And understanding the Dodgers’ present rotation, it’s highly likely that they can start their hunt for someone who can replace Clayton Kershaw’s place in the coming years. With a two-time All-Star appearance, Triple Crown, Cy Young Award, and Gold Glove Award on his resume, who can be a better option for them than Bieber?

But still, “That’s not to say Bieber wouldn’t extend with the Jays,” as Bannon continued. “The righty praised Toronto’s facilities when he arrived via trade, and the Jays still have a month to show the starter the organization’s winning potential.” And most importantly, we can not ignore…

The Blue Jays’ desperate need for a top-tier starting pitcher

The Jays are going to face a potential crisis in their starting rotation next season as veteran Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer are set to become free agents. This would create an urgent need for at least one, and possibly two, proven starting pitchers behind aces Kevin Gausman and José Berríos.

And in his four starts so far this season, Bieber has a 1.04 WHIP and a 3.19 FIP, which suggests he has pitched even better than his 4.30 ERA indicates. And Blue Jays insider Shi Davidi even said, “Not a lot of guys are able to come back from that procedure after all the downtime and look as sharp as he is.” It makes Bieber a decent option in the place of Max Schrezer, if he and the organization decide not to extend the contract.

Toronto has internal options like Former Cy Young finalist Alek Manoah(returning from TJ), prospects like Trey Yesavage, but they all come with major question marks. 

But signing Bichette could easily consume $25-30 million in average annual salary. And adding Bieber would push Toronto deep into luxury tax territory. Fresh off a 14-year, $500 million extension handed to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the front office will surely rethink before giving Bieber a contract extension despite his comeback season.