The Toronto Blue Jays are $32 million over the luxury tax limit, but Ken Rosenthal predicts they will spend even more at the trade deadline. They are trying to save a turbulent season—one that is very messy because they have a massive payroll but are actually playing losing baseball. Ken Rosenthal says the Jays simply will not hold back.

“Even though the Blue Jays are over the highest luxury tax threshold, they’re still willing to take on money at the trade deadline…” Rosenthal said via Foul Territory.

The team’s money problems started because they spent a lot of cash last winter. The Blue Jays are expected to have a huge 2026 payroll of over $307 million. Because they went over the luxury tax limit, they have to pay a $32 million fine. They also lost several future draft picks. Still, the Blue Jays are breaking past these strict payroll limits because they are desperate to win.

The team has done this before. In 2023, they traded for players like Jordan Hicks and Paul DeJong, even when they were right up against the tax limit.

Well, the Blue Jays are currently the third most expensive team, but their stats say otherwise. They are one game back of a Wild Card, and two games under .500. They are ranked 23rd in terms of scoring runs (308) and scoring home runs (75). Having such numbers despite the team investing $300 million combined on Dylan Cease, Kazuma Okamoto, and Tyler Rogers is what makes them an obvious buyer at the deadline.

The Blue Jays are the 2025 World Series finalists, and they cannot miss a playoff berth this year. According to Rosenthal, the owners would infuse more money to bring in some new names by the deadline. But bringing new names would not solve the issue.

“The first thing that has to happen. Vladimir Guerrero jr’s got to start hitting for power again,” Rosenthal added.

Guerrero is enduring a shocking power drought in the 2026 season. Even after signing a huge 14-year, $500 million contract, he only hit three home runs in his first 68 games. He finally hit another home run against the Boston Red Sox recently, but it is not nearly enough to fix the team’s weak offense. The team has other big holes to fill, too.

“I was told a high contact hitter, kind of someone who would fit into their system right, and obviously a right-handed hitting outfielder,” Rosenthal predicted.

Except for George Springer, the outfield is full of left-handed batters, and the right-handed hitters are struggling. Also, the starting pitchers are getting tired and leaving games early. This puts too much pressure on the relief pitchers in the bullpen.

The team needs reliable starting pitchers and good late-game relievers. Because they need so much help, the Blue Jays are forced to spend more cash.

A few names are rumored with the Blue Jays

“San Francisco Giants second baseman Luis Arraez might make sense as the contact guy, but his chase rate is nearly as high as the Jays’ league-leading 34 percent mark,” Rosenthal predicted.

The Jays are widely reported as an ideal fit for Arraez, given his track record as a multiple-time batting champion. People used to worry about his defense. But working with Giants coach Ron Washington has made Arraez a very good second baseman this year. Thus, making him an even more attractive piece for contending teams like Toronto.

But placing Arraez means the Jays need to move Ernie Clement, their best slugger of 2026, from second to third, dislocating Kazuma Okamoto from third.

For pitching, getting Tarik Skubal would be a massive trade. With the Blue Jays currently having a rotation battered by injuries to pitchers like Max Scherzer, José Berríos, and Shane Bieber, Skubal is the perfect target to make a deep playoff push. If Rosenthal’s prediction proves right, the Jays could splash all for Skubal.

If last offseason is any indication, a blockbuster trade deadline is around the corner for the Jays.