Most teams would be in trouble if they lost a .294 career hitter who hit 111 home runs in seven seasons. The Toronto Blue Jays are betting that they are not like most teams. Bo Bichette’s move to the Mets on a three-year deal ends a chapter in which he became one of baseball’s best right-handed hitters. However, Toronto’s aggressive moves in the offseason show that they have already moved on. The real question isn’t whether they’ll miss Bichette; it’s whether the projections underestimate what they’ve built to take his place.

FanGraphs’ ZiPS projection system says that the Blue Jays will win 90 games in 2026, which is four fewer than they did in 2025. This is despite them signing Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million deal and bringing in Japanese power hitter Kazuma Okamoto. Jim Riley from BALLCAP Sports pointed out the disconnect on YouTube. “The Blue Jays are going backwards, four wins. Bo Bichette’s gone, but with the addition of Dylan Cease, Trey Sweeney is here now as well. You would think that they should have done enough to maybe at least hold at the 94-win total, but this has them coming down.”

Riley agreed that the way projections are made naturally includes conservative estimates, but he disagreed with the final number: “The ceiling could actually be for the Blue Jays something like 96 or 97, but they’re going to project a little lower than that here at this 90 number. Still seems a little low for me.”

When looking at how Toronto built its roster, the doubt is reasonable. Cease adds top-notch starting pitching to a rotation that already had steady arms, and Cody Ponce ($30 million) adds depth. Addison Barger became a playoff hero in 2025, hitting.367/.441/.583 with 22 hits in the postseason after getting more playing time during the regular season. His strikeout rate is still a worry from the regular season, but his October surge showed that he has the potential to be a better hitter than projections might show. Ernie Clement’s established presence and Barger’s growth give the team internal replacements that traditional projection models, which focus heavily on past performance data, don’t show.

The signing of Okamoto is Toronto’s most daring move to make up for Bichette’s loss of production. Riley stayed calm but hopeful about the Japanese import’s move: “Kazuma Okamoto, look, I’m not expecting big things from him, but I am expecting him to be a good contributor, a good producer in this lineup. It does seem like we’re a little soft on them.”

Okamoto slides into third base, moving Barger to right field. He has 277 career NPB home runs, a .501 slugging percentage, and a .856 OPS. If the change works, Okamoto could hit 30 home runs. He doesn’t have to match Bichette’s .806 OPS right away; he just needs to hit well with Guerrero Jr., Springer, and Barger. Instead of getting rid of one star, Toronto spent $270 million on players who could pitch. The Mets got the best right-handed hitter they could find. The Blue Jays built something different. It seems like ninety wins is their lowest point, not the highest.

Sean Casey sees Blue Jays as Dodgers’ biggest threat

That ceiling might be higher than most people think. As the Los Angeles Dodgers build up their roster after winning the World Series twice in a row, Sean Casey of MLB Network is looking north. The Dodgers added Edwin Diaz and Kyle Tucker to a roster that was already very strong, but “The Mayor” thinks Toronto has what it takes to end their reign.

Casey didn’t hold back on his prediction. He said, “I think it’s the Blue Jays, with what they have done (this offseason), bringing in (Kazuma) Okamoto was great, but they matched up incredibly well against the Dodgers,” he said. “You look at them in the World Series, and statistically they were the better team, even though they couldn’t pull it off in Game 7.” Toronto is still upset about that near-miss last October, but it showed something important: the Blue Jays already knew how to beat the best teams in baseball.

The offseason addressed remaining gaps. “Bringing in Dylan Cease and Okamoto, they got Cody Ponce from (South) Korea, and Tyler Rogers is a really nice piece for that bullpen,” Casey explained. “And don’t forget about (Anthony) Santander, we’ll see how he contributes, he was pretty much a non-factor for them in 2025.”

Toronto almost won the title with a weaker team. They’ve improved their pitching, power, and depth in the bullpen. The 90-win prediction doesn’t take into account teams that are made to beat the best.