Becoming only the seventh player in the league’s history to hit 60 home runs in a season, Cal Raleigh requires just three more homers to break Aaron Judge’s record for the most home runs in a single AL season. Considering his current pace, he could topple the mark even before the Seattle Mariners’ final regular-season game on Sunday. However, top insiders have pointed out a detail many hadn’t considered until now. Let’s just say, the tricky details have all the potential to reshape the narrative around the AL MVP race.

Evan Roberts and Shaun Morash recently laid out the ballpark effects on Cal Raleigh and Aaron Judge’s home run count. As per Evan Roberts’ analysis, “There are only two stadiums in the entire sport where Cal Raleigh would have benefited from playing in. That means what he’s done in Seattle…hitting 60 home runs—obviously not all at home; he would have benefited more in only two other stadiums… One is Cincinnati and the other is Sacramento.” He said. Further, he dropped the most intriguing bit.

Guess what Raleigh’s expected home run total would’ve been if he were playing in Yankee Stadium? Shockingly, it would have dropped from 60 to “48,” per Roberts. Apparently, the expansive center field (408 feet) and right field (314 feet) at the Bronx present challenges for left-handed hitters like Raleigh.

Unlike Yankee Stadium, except for T-Mobile Park, both Sutter Health Park and Great American Ball Park are considered hitter-friendly, especially for lefties. Now it’s only fair to lay out the same exercise for Aaron Judge, right? If he were to play in 15 other ballparks across MLB except for Yankee Stadium, then, as per Roberts, he would hit more home runs than Raleigh.

At the time of writing, Raleigh has a .247 batting average, 60 home runs, 123 RBIs, and .954 OPS. Meanwhile,

Aaron Judge is hitting .330 with 51 home runs, 109 RBIs, and a 1.140 OPS. Evan Roberts’ analysis is fascinating, and it’ll be interesting to see how much this factor affects the voting. And regarding voting, an ESPN reporter has cleared his stance on whom he’s picking.

Aaron Judge vs. Cal Raleigh? Jeff Passan has made his stance known

ESPN’s Jeff Passan recently shared which side he’s on in The Pat McAfee Show. “If I had a vote right now, I would go Aaron Judge and I would feel terrible about it.” He said.

Being on the Yankees star’s team, it certainly left Raleigh’s supporters fuming when Passan admitted that. He also revealed that he talked to a current MVP voter who asked players around the league who they would pick. It might come as a surprise to many, but each and every player picked Judge over Raleigh. So, even before the official votes are in, this thing could certainly reshape how the award plays out.

Beyond his usual numbers, Judge leads the league with his 9.3 WAR, per Baseball Reference. Being the centerpiece of the Yankees’ offense, having scored 133 runs, game after game, Judge is making a stronger case in this race. His teammates are a little biased, for sure, but are outspoken about his value in the league. “If you really look at the numbers, I don’t think it’s close.” Giancarlo Stanton said.

Speaking of Raleigh, beyond his 60-homer historic feat, he’s caught nearly 159 games. It happens to be one of the toughest roles in sports, and Jeff Passan seems to agree. He noted that oftentimes catchers are undervalued. Largely because a lot of their work never makes it into box scores. Raleigh is elite in pitch calling and handling pitchers, and hence his influence stretches far beyond his home run totals.

At this point, National League executives are thankful that they don’t have a vote in the Judge vs. Raleigh race. It’s heating up game after game. Let’s see who takes the title home.

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