Casey Mize, a free-agent right-hander, had a 2.70 ERA over 16 starts for the Detroit Tigers. Then, he posted a 7.46 ERA over 10 starts for the San Diego Padres. Dustin May, a right-hander who later won a World Series with the Milwaukee Brewers, was in a similar spot a year ago. Now, the St. Louis Cardinals see the same chance.

The Cardinals are expected to repeat last year’s move. President of baseball operations Chaim Bloom is projected to offer Mize a one-year deal worth $14 million to $15 million, the same type of contract May signed. ESPN projects a one-year deal worth $15 million, while Spotrac projects a three-year, $50 million deal.

A one-year deal makes sense because Mize’s season split into two very different halves.

In the first half, he had a 2.79 ERA and a 2.69 FIP over 77.1 innings, with a 25.3% strikeout rate and a .209 opponent average. But his career 4.22 ERA shows how fast that can change.

Meanwhile, May’s deal proves that this works.

May had injury worries, and St. Louis signed him for one year and $12.5 million. He made 21 starts with a 4.38 ERA, which gave the club steady innings from a pitcher of whom many teams were skeptical.

At the trade deadline, Bloom sent May and reliever JoJo Romero to the Brewers for outfield prospects Josiah Ragsdale and Alexander Frías. The Cardinals got a young talent for a pitcher who cost them one season at a fair price.

This is why Mize fits so well.

The Cards finished 77-85, ranked fourth in the NL Central, and missed the playoffs for the fourth consecutive year. They have an estimated total payroll of $76 million for the 2027 season, and young players like rookie 2B JJ Wetherholt and right fielder Jordan Walker are still developing. A short deal for Mize adds an arm without blocking that growth.

The same plan has two good outcomes.

If Mize pitches like his first half, he can anchor the rotation. If the team falls out of the race again, he becomes another trade chip at the deadline, just like May.

Now, the decision belongs to a new leader in the front office.

Cardinals’ Rob Cerfolio gets an early test with the rotation

The 34-year-old Rob Cerfolio was promoted Friday after working as assistant GM since 2024. Before that, he spent 2015 to 2024 in Cleveland’s front office and became the director of player development.

His background fits a player like Mize, a former first overall pick from 2018 who has never fully reached his ceiling.

Mize turns 30 on May 1, which still makes him one of the younger starters on the market. Adrian Morejon, Kris Bubic, Hiromi Itoh, and May are all younger, even if that’s for a few months.

Health is the biggest risk.

Mize has thrown over 130 innings only three times as a pro, and he has reached 30 starts just once. His stuff also does not match May’s raw power. A one-year deal keeps the cost low if he lands on the Injured List again, as he did in San Diego.

Mize suffered a sprained right ankle in late August 2026 after slipping and rolling his ankle on the dugout steps during a game against the Minnesota Twins. Although initial X-rays were negative for fractures, the lingering lower-body discomfort severely affected his mechanics, lower-half force generation, and pitch execution. The Padres officially placed Mize on the 15-day injured list (IL) in late September 2026 as the ankle inflammation and performance struggles continued to limit him.

If he stays healthy, Mize could settle the back of the rotation before Opening Day against the Cincinnati Reds. If the Cardinals are not in the race by July, Cerfolio would have a clear path to flip him, just as Bloom did with May.