A .695 OPS and nine home runs do not scream $500 million. Not when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had an .848 OPS with 23 homers in 2025 and a .940 OPS with 30 homers the year before. The drop-off has been hard to ignore, especially for a first baseman whose value is supposed to come from his bat. So when the power disappears and the production crashes in the first season of a massive deal, the questions are inevitable. Guerrero, though, has a very different way of looking at it.

“I want people to understand one thing. The money they gave me wasn’t for what I’m going to do. It was for what I already did,” Vladdy told Veronica Batista in a recent interview, per Philip Feliz. “They didn’t pay me to hit 40 [home runs] every year. They paid me for what I already accomplished.”

And Guerrero wasn’t exactly pointing to an empty résumé. By the time Toronto committed to him long-term, he had already finished runner-up for the 2021 AL MVP after hitting .311 with 48 home runs and a 1.002 OPS, while also winning the Hank Aaron Award, a Silver Slugger, and All-Star Game MVP. He later added a Gold Glove at first base in 2022. Then came the 2024 rebound, when he hit a career-best .323 with 30 homers and 103 RBIs, earned his fourth straight All-Star selection, won his second Silver Slugger, and made the All-MLB First Team at first base.

That is what makes Guerrero’s collapse so hard to brush off. This was not just bad luck, and it was not some harmless cold stretch.

His mechanics were off, his timing slipped, and far too much of his hard contact was being buried into the ground. In 2026, 56% of his hard-hit balls were grounders, compared with 43% a year earlier. His hard-hit rate dropped, his barrel rate was cut roughly in half, and he started chasing more pitches.

The injuries only made the picture messier. Guerrero dealt with recurring back tightness, and John Schneider openly acknowledged that it was interfering with his swing. “It’s more when he’s landing and rotating,” Schneider said, adding that Guerrero was “not really getting his normal swing off.” But even that does not completely explain away the season because the decline had started weeks before the back issue was first reported.

That drop-off is why Kevin Pillar criticized him earlier this month, and fans have raised similar questions about his hustle and ability to deliver in big moments.

Guerrero later said he did not regret his comments about the deal, but admitted he understands where the frustration comes from.

“I think the same way they do. Like, sometimes I even say to myself: bro, they gave you all that money, and you’re out here doing nothing. I try,” he added.

“I know all the people that go to the field, to the games, they pay to see me being successful, to do something good every at-bat. Every time I think about that, my contract, mentally.”

That pressure has only intensified as Toronto’s season has unraveled. The Blue Jays were swept in Baltimore and sit 4.5 games behind the final AL Wild Card spot with three games remaining, though they have already been mathematically eliminated. At this point, the focus has shifted entirely to what comes next.

“I’m going to go through the offseason again to prepare myself the best I can, physically, mentally,” Guerrero said.

Now the question is whether this season was simply one ugly setback or the first real warning sign of a much bigger problem.