The market for Tarik Skubal just moved, and the Dodgers are no longer in the driver’s seat. The Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander and two-time American League Cy Young Award winner posted a 2.72 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over 26 starts in 2026. That could earn more than Dodgers right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325 million record. Yet the Dodgers, long viewed as frontrunners, are now watching from behind.
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The market shifted again when account Joe CitiLeeks relayed MLB insider Jon Heyman’s intel on X:
“According to Jon Heyman, the San Diego Padres are now No. 2 in the Tarik Skubal sweepstakes, ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers. A significant development considering the Dodgers have long been viewed as the Mets’ biggest competition.”
The Dodgers’ retreat from the top spot has little to do with Skubal’s talent, though.
He turns 30 on November 20, and Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman prefers short, high-AAV deals like outfielder Kyle Tucker’s four-year, $240 million one. A roughly $430 million CBT payroll already produced an estimated $180 million tax bill.
Health is another reason the Dodgers are hesitant.
Skubal missed roughly five and a half weeks after surgery to remove a loose body/fragments from his left elbow, and he finished with 158.2 innings, down from 195.1 in 2025. That arm history makes an eight-to-ten-year guarantee for a pitcher turning 30 a tougher sell to Andrew Friedman’s front office. Los Angeles may see risk in that medical file, but San Diego sees an ace worth chasing.
The Padres won 91 games and reached the NLDS, but right-hander Randy Vásquez is the only returning pitcher who made more than six starts in 2026. With Casey Mize and Robbie Ray unlikely to return and the futures of Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish unclear, Skubal would give the rotation an ace to build around and strip its top division rival, the Dodgers.
Need and ability to pay are two different things, and San Diego’s new ownership has already hinted at how far the checkbook will stretch.
“We are going to live within our means, and that could mean different things in different years,” Padres owner José E. Feliciano said in August.
“But again, we want to win, and we’re going to continue supporting that goal in many different ways, and that means at some moments we’re going to be aggressive, but we’re always going to do it with the long-term health of the team in mind.”
The numbers back that caution.
Infielders Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts, plus outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr., are owed a combined $686 million through 2034. MLB Trade Rumors projects Skubal at nine years and $425 million, well above Tatis’ franchise-record $340 million extension, while right-hander Michael King’s opt-out and the declined option on right-hander Nick Pivetta leave the rotation thin.
This leaves the New York Mets as the team everyone else has to chase.
The Mets entered the offseason as the favorite for Skubal
The Padres have momentum, but the Mets have desperation:
Two straight playoff misses and an owner willing to spend. They view a frontline ace as their top priority, and rival executives say no other contender feels more urgency.
The urgency shows up in the standings and the payroll.
The Padres won 91 games and reached the NLDS, while the Dodgers already have $167 million committed to two-way star Shohei Ohtani, left-hander Blake Snell, right-hander Tyler Glasnow, and Yamamoto for the next season. The Mets have missed October in the last two years, so landing an ace is a need, not a luxury.
That need is backed by a willingness to spend. Mets owner Steve Cohen already gave outfielder Juan Soto a 15-year, $765 million deal, and Skubal’s agent, Scott Boras, wants the maximum guaranteed years that Cohen has shown he will offer.
The price tag is where that approach could matter most.
ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel projects eight years and $352 million for Skubal, which would top Dodgers right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 12-year, $325 million record for a pitcher.
Still, money will not stop other clubs from joining the bidding.
MLB insider Jon Heyman reports that the San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies and Toronto Blue Jays are also lurking, so the Mets will have to move quickly.
The calendar adds to that pressure.
The collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1, 2026, and many insiders expect Skubal to sign before a possible freeze.
With the clock ticking, the real question is whether anyone can match what New York is willing to put on the table. The Dodgers have the history, and the Padres have the need, but the Mets pair urgency with an owner who has shown he will pay. Unless a rival changes its approach before the December 1 deadline, Steve Cohen’s club looks like the one to beat.